The XRP price may be approaching a decisive turning point after fresh on-chain data revealed one of the most extreme capitulation events in years. According to Santiment analysis, XRP has just recorded its largest realized loss spike since 2022, a development that has previously preceded a major price recovery. The data is now fueling expectations that a bottom could be in, with a move back above $2 increasingly within reach if history repeats.
XRP Price Bottom Signals Emerge After Historic Loss Spike
Santiment’s weekly Network Realized Profit/Loss chart, which tracks five years of XRP alongside price action, has revealed a dramatic spike in on-chain realized losses. The latest readings came in at roughly -908 million XRP, marking the largest capitulation event since November 2022, when weekly realized losses hit nearly -1.93 billion.
Notably, the 2022 capitulation event occurred after a period of compression and decline. At the time, XRP’s price had been trending downward for months before the -1.93 billion reading printed. This showed that investors were selling at heavy losses near what later proved to be a price bottom. After that point, the trend reversed, and over the next eight months, the XRP price rose more than 114%.
Based on Santiment’s analysis, XRP’s current structure is mirroring this 2022 setup. The cryptocurrency recently fell from above $3 to the mid-$1 range, with the chart showing price hovering around $1.45 to $1.65 as the realized loss spike emerged. This sharp increase in losses suggests widespread capitulation, as many holders appear to have sold at a loss out of fear and panic rather than waiting for a potential rebound.
Historically, this type of extreme loss spike tends to appear near price floors, XRP price bottom could be in.
A Possible Recovery Toward $2
While the comparison to the 2022 capitulation event suggests a potential bottom for XRP, it also points to a potential bullish recovery. After the -1.93 billion realized loss spike in 2022, XRP did not rebound immediately. Instead, it gradually shifted structure and produced a 114% rally over the next eight months.
From the current price range near $1.35, a similar gain would push XRP well above the $2 threshold. The chart shows that past capitulation phases were followed by expanding candles and stronger upward momentum once selling pressure eased. If the recent -908 million realized loss spike represents a similar emotional extreme to the one observed in 2022, it could indicate that downside pressure is diminishing and a recovery may be approaching.