![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/HBIh6orawAAHzmT.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\")
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Maartunn points first to what he describes as \u201cstructural selling pressure\u201d tied to spot ETFs. According to his figures, the new spot ETFs have posted an $8.2 billion drawdown from peak holdings, \u201cthe largest on record\u201d, creating persistent sell pressure. He adds that the current price is around 17% below the average buying price for ETF holders, putting a meaningful slice of that cohort underwater and potentially incentivized to cut exposure.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/HBIh8UYa0AAGTGd.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\")
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He then pairs that flow story with a mechanical reset in derivatives. Open interest has been \u201csliced by more than half,\u201d falling from $45.5 billion to $21.7 billion, with a 27% drop in open interest in the last week alone. Maartunn describes this as a broad deleveraging event, painful in real time, but historically consistent with conditions that allow a bottom to form.<\/p>\n
\u201cLook, it\u2019s definitely painful for anyone who is overleveraged, but getting rid of all that speculation is an absolutely necessary step to form a real sustainable market bottom,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is a signal of a major wash out of speculative excess.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/HBIh9bFakAAYvxJ.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\")
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To gauge whether the drawdown is translating into capitulation-like stress, Maartunn focuses on short-term holders. He cites the short-term holder MVRV ratio at 0.72, implying the average short-term holder is down about 28%, \u201cdeep underwater\u201d as a group. In his telling, that\u2019s not a routine reading: it\u2019s the lowest level since the July 2022 bottom, and a band that has historically aligned with periods of maximum financial pain.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis level of financial stress is pretty rare historically, and it usually happens during periods of major capitulation,\u201d Maartunn said. \u201cNow, sure, could this ratio go even lower? Absolutely. But what history shows us is that when we get down into these levels, the risk-to-reward profile for Bitcoin starts to look a lot better.\u201d<\/p>\n
Maartunn also frames the current structure as a retest of a major support cluster \u2014 where the previous cycle\u2019s all-time high intersects the upper boundary of an older trading range \u2014 a zone that has often mattered in past cycle transitions. From there, he moves to time-based analogs, suggesting prior bear-market durations imply a broad window between June and December 2026, with the last two cycles clustering most tightly between September and November.<\/p>\n
His closing point is that bottoms are rarely single-day events. In his view, ETF-driven structural selling, the leverage flush, stress among short-term holders, and the retest of key levels can all coexist inside a longer bottoming process \u2014 with sentiment as the final tell.<\/p>\n
\u201cA real market bottom\u2026 that\u2019s usually marked by just apathy,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen engagement on social media is totally dead, your timeline is quiet, and honestly, nobody seems to care anymore. That period of total disinterest is often the point of maximum financial opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n
Overall, the implication of Maartunn\u2019s framework is straightforward: the data may be shifting toward early bottom formation signals, but the confirming evidence, particularly around flows and sentiment, could still arrive in stages, with volatility and further stress tests along the way.<\/p>\n
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,710.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/BTCUSDT_2026-02-16_09-41-32.png?resize=1024%2C499\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin is sitting at a \u201ccritical point,\u201d with traders split between two familiar scripts: a full capitulation event, or the early innings of a durable bottoming process. In a Feb. 15 video explainer, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn argued the data is starting to line up for the latter, but with a clear caveat that any bottom…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10120,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,1842,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-10119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-new","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10119\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}