new valuation framework<\/a> for HYPE. They modeled four scenarios based on the potential market capture of the $1.74 trillion daily Total Addressable Market (TAM) that Hyperliquid could attain through its HIP-3 protocol.\u00a0<\/p>\nUtilizing a three-year discounted cash flow (DCF) framework, each scenario assumes a gradual capture rate: 20% in Year 1 (2026), 50% in Year 2 (2027), and 100% by Year 3 (2028), reflecting the gradual process of building market share.<\/p>\n
In a bear case scenario, where Hyperliquid captures just 0.01% of the market, HIP-3 could generate $32 million in annual fees at full ramp-up based on the conversion-adjusted TAM.\u00a0<\/p>\n
When combined with baseline revenue projected at $1.35 billion and considering the terminal value from Year 3 total revenue, the DCF results in an estimated enterprise value of approximately $18 billion, which could result in HYPE reaching a new record of $60 per token.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Under the base case of 0.10% market capture, Year 3 revenue from HIP-3 would climb to roughly $322 million, resulting in a total revenue of about $1.7 billion and an enterprise value nearing $22 billion. This would imply a token price around $72.<\/p>\n
$190 In Most Optimistic Case\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the bullish scenario, with a 0.50% capture, the Year 3 HIP-3 fees would reach $1.6 billion, contributing to a total revenue of $3.0 billion. This would yield an enterprise value of $38 billion, corresponding to an implied price of about $124, representing a fully diluted valuation of around $124 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The most optimistic case, positioned at a 1.00% capture, projects total Year 3 revenue of $4.6 billion, with an enterprise value of $59 billion and HYPE potentially valued at $190.<\/p>\n
DCo’s analysis reveals that, even at a default 20% discount and 20x multiple, the current price of $37 is considerably lower than the bear case valuation of $60.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This suggests that the market has not fully appreciated the potential contributions from HIP-3 and is undervaluing the inherent value of Hyperliquid’s crypto exchange business.<\/p>\n
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Decentralized exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid (HYPE) is experiencing a notable surge in its key metrics, positioning itself as a preferred trading platform amid rising tensions in Iran.\u00a0 This increased activity has propelled HYPE to outperform the market\u2019s leading cryptocurrencies, boasting a major 23% gain over the past week. However, market analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10604,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[43,33,1281,2454,1282,1283,4645,4646,4958,4959,2558,4960],"class_list":["post-10603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-crypto-news","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-hype","tag-hype-analysis","tag-hype-news","tag-hype-price","tag-hype-price-forecast","tag-hype-price-news","tag-hyperliquid-hip-3","tag-hyperliquid-metrics","tag-hyperliquid-news","tag-hyperliquid-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10603"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10603\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10604"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}