{"id":10753,"date":"2026-03-22T19:13:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-sp-500-correlation-coefficient-signals-impending-market-crash-details\/"},"modified":"2026-03-22T19:13:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:13:06","slug":"bitcoin-sp-500-correlation-coefficient-signals-impending-market-crash-details","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-sp-500-correlation-coefficient-signals-impending-market-crash-details\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin-S&P 500 Correlation Coefficient Signals Impending Market Crash \u2013 Details"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin market commenced an extended bearish phase in October 2025, after an initial flash crash triggered a 19% decline from the present all-time high at $126,000. In the subsequent months, Bitcoin would experience a steady loss combined with major drawdown moments, eventually pulling its price to a local bottom of $60,000, before entering a mid-term consolidation phase.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the last month, Bitcoin has shown a moderate recovery with a net gain of 4.89%, with prices trading as high as $75,000. While this recent performance may be indicative of a stabilizing market, recent data on the correlation between the premier cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 has presented new bearish concerns.\n<\/p>\n

Historical Correlation Coefficient Data Hints At Potential Market Crash\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n

In an X post<\/a> on March 21, market analyst Tony Severino reports that recent developments with the BTC-S&P 500 Correlation Coefficient indicate Bitcoin is in danger of another major downswing. Notably, the Correlation Coefficient is a figure between -1 and +1 that measures how strongly and in what direction two assets, i.e., Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in this case, move relative to each other over time.<\/p>\n

\n

Observation<\/p>\n

Historically, when Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 drops to -0.5 on the Correlation Coefficient, and then turns sharply up, it is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it<\/p>\n

Usually there's a bounce first to add to the pain pic.twitter.com\/Tefbzo2nd3<\/a><\/p>\n

— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) March 21, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

At +1, the coefficient indicates that the assets move exactly together in the same direction, while at -1, a perfect negative correlation occurs, with the assets moving in opposite directions. At 0, movements are considered unrelated, with no identifiable pattern, as both assets trend independently of each other.<\/p>\n

Amid the bear market that has persisted since late 2025 and early 2026, the 20-day Bitcoin-S&P Correlation Coefficient dipped to around -0.5 as Bitcoin prices fell while equities rose. However, Severino notes that this coefficient had recently rebounded to around -0.10, creating a market sequence that has previously preceded major Bitcoin downturns.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

According to the seasoned expert, each time the 20-day BTC S&P 500 correlation dropped to -0.5 before sharply reversing, it has triggered stock market crashes that induced a significant sell-off in the Bitcoin market. However, there is usually an initial price bounce lasting 10-17 weeks before the drawdown commences.\u00a0 Severino’s analysis suggests the limited rebound observed since early February represents this preliminary gain, which is now 8-weeks old.<\/p>\n

As observed in 2018, 2020, and 2022, the resulting correction from this setup threatens a potential price fall of 70-80% from the peak of this initial price bounce.\n<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Market Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,584 after a 2.41% decline in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume has declined by 41.21%, representing a fall in the traders’ participation as Bitcoin continues to consolidate following its failed breakout above $75,000 in the last week.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin market commenced an extended bearish phase in October 2025, after an initial flash crash triggered a 19% decline from the present all-time high at $126,000. In the subsequent months, Bitcoin would experience a steady loss combined with major drawdown moments, eventually pulling its price to a local bottom of $60,000, before entering a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10754,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119],"tags":[56,5027,70,62,3547,3845,1587],"class_list":["post-10753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-sp-500-correlation-coefficient","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-historical-data","tag-sp","tag-tony-severino"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}