![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/BTCUSDT_2025-01-30_08-02-00.png?resize=3628%2C1675\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation\u2019s leadership in digital assets.<\/p>\n
Hougan\u2019s four-year cycle,\u201d where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:\u201cThe four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something \u201cbreaks\u201d and triggers a market correction\u2014such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs.<\/p>\n
Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the \u201cMainstream Cycle,\u201d emerging out of 2022\u2019s \u201cmassive deleveraging\u201d caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly \u201cwon the opening argument\u201d in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF.<\/p>\n
\u201cBitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It\u2019s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.\u201d Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin\u2019s acceptance among both retail and institutional players.<\/p>\n
The most striking component of Hougan\u2019s analysis is his examination of last week\u2019s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a \u201cnational priority,\u201d but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto.<\/p>\n
\u201cLast week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it\u2019s making me wonder,\u201d Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential \u201cnational crypto stockpile\u201d and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets.<\/p>\n
Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate.<\/p>\n
Hougan\u2019s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there\u2019s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: \u201cIf it\u2019s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new \u2018crypto winter\u2019 in 2026?\u201d he posited. \u201cIf BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?\u201d<\/p>\n
While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system\u2014citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products\u2014he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven\u2019t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued.<\/p>\n
However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be \u201cshorter and shallower\u201d than previous cycles. With the industry\u2019s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. \u201cAs for now, it\u2019s full steam ahead,\u201d he concluded. \u201cThe crypto train is leaving the station.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $105,275.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2821,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119],"tags":[56,1642,256,55,69,183,61,120,121,43,1643,476],"class_list":["post-2820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bear-market","tag-bitcoin-bull-run","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitwise","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-crypto-news","tag-cryptp","tag-matt-hougan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2820\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}