{"id":3019,"date":"2025-02-10T19:13:06","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T19:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-in-2025-history-could-repeat-with-a-2017-style-surge\/"},"modified":"2025-02-10T19:13:06","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T19:13:06","slug":"bitcoin-in-2025-history-could-repeat-with-a-2017-style-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-in-2025-history-could-repeat-with-a-2017-style-surge\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin In 2025: History Could Repeat With A 2017-Style Surge"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a video titled<\/a> \u201cThe Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,\u201d Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) laid out a sweeping perspective on where growth and inflation trends appear to be heading, why the upcoming cycle looks more akin to 2017 than 2021, and how Bitcoin could be primed for notable upside if its historical relationship with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index and global liquidity holds true.<\/p>\n

Forcast: Bitcoin Macro Summer Is Coming<\/h2>\n

Bittel explained that macro \u201csummer\u201d is the dominant regime he sees unfolding throughout 2025, meaning growth momentum is picking up while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to avoid overtightening. He underscored that \u201cthe business cycle still chugs along,\u201d pointing to improving global manufacturing data and to the fact that more countries have been shifting into expansion territory. Although slight fluctuations persist in some indicators, including pockets that briefly resemble a slowdown, Bittel remains confident that these do not mark the onset of a new macro \u201cfall\u201d with sustained growth deceleration and rising inflation. He instead suggests these headwinds will prove short-lived, given an overall environment in which global financial conditions are loosening.<\/p>\n

He highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the recent weakening of the dollar as factors that will allow \u201cmore cowbell\u201d from central banks. China\u2019s bond yields have also collapsed, which Bittel sees as a major signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating. He described this combination as an echo of 2017, a year when a softer dollar and lower interest rates contributed to an upswing in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n

Turning to inflation, Bittel dissected why shelter and other service-related costs are such significant laggards. He observed that more than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which \u201ctypically lags home prices by around 17 months,\u201d and pointed out that shelter inflation is still keeping official CPI numbers elevated. He expects this dynamic to give central banks leeway to ease monetary policy further once they see the data turning down. While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, might push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasizes that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will likely retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling the ongoing economic rebound.<\/p>\n

In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel zeroed in on the business cycle\u2019s role in driving outsized price movements. He recalled that when the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the leading cryptocurrency proceeded to rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture abruptly topped out as soon as ISM and liquidity peaked, cutting short the cycle and capping Bitcoin\u2019s run at roughly an 8x move from its initial pivot out of recession. Today\u2019s backdrop looks materially different. Bittel noted that \u201cthe ISM is just now moving above 50,\u201d which contrasts with the late 2020\u2013early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s almost in one breath.<\/p>\n

He added that \u201cif we\u2019re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity,\u201d Bitcoin\u2019s path could more closely resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021. Although Bittel did not offer a precise price target for Bitcoin, he referenced the historical precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 once the cycle gained traction. His caution was clear\u2014he stated repeatedly that these moves are never guaranteed and that \u201cI\u2019m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x,\u201d but he also stressed that in every prior crypto run, persistent strength in the business cycle proved to be \u201cthe magic gift that keeps on giving.\u201d He believes the foundation has been set for an extended upswing, yet reminded everyone that 20\u201330% drawdowns are inevitable even during powerful rallies.<\/p>\n

He further noted that \u201conce you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going,\u201d and reiterated that liquidity, particularly from China, could become an even bigger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses. Bittel reinforced the point, saying that \u201chistorically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we\u2019re in macro summer.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial conditions, remain in place, though he reminded viewers to expect corrections and remain patient. In his words, \u201cit\u2019s never a straight line,\u201d and it can feel like \u201cthe end of the world\u201d in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the ongoing slide in the dollar, he believes the runway for Bitcoin\u2014and other risk assets\u2014still appears relatively long.<\/p>\n

While Bittel\u2019s presentation also addressed broader market segments, such as commodities and cyclical equities, Bitcoin received special focus. In explaining why GMI\u2019s macro framework still signals optimism, Bittel emphasized that \u201cdips are for buying,\u201d provided that investors keep a close eye on signs of any deeper structural slowdown. He stressed that \u201cno one should forget that if you sign up for Bitcoin, you\u2019re signing up for volatility,\u201d but with the business cycle only just beginning its ascent and liquidity conditions gaining traction, there may be ample room for Bitcoin to move beyond its previous peaks if the data continue to favor cyclical expansion.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $97,710.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a video titled \u201cThe Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,\u201d Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) laid out a sweeping perspective on where growth and inflation trends appear to be heading, why the upcoming cycle looks more akin to 2017 than 2021, and how Bitcoin could be primed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119],"tags":[56,55,1718,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-3019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-prediction-2025","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3019"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3019\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}