{"id":3313,"date":"2025-02-25T19:13:09","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T19:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-crashes-experts-warn-of-6-month-slump-to-73000\/"},"modified":"2025-02-25T19:13:09","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T19:13:09","slug":"bitcoin-crashes-experts-warn-of-6-month-slump-to-73000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-crashes-experts-warn-of-6-month-slump-to-73000\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Crashes: Experts Warn Of 6-Month Slump To $73,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin price has fallen more than -8.8% since Friday when Bybit suffered the biggest crypto hack in history. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $99,493 late last week, only to retreat to roughly $91,500 at press time, marking a -5.5% decline since Monday. This downturn not only shatters Bitcoin\u2019s attempt to hold above $95,000 but also places it on the verge of losing its critical 97-day trading range between $91,000 and $102,000. Notably, Bitcoin\u2019s price has broken below the descending trend channel that has been in play since January 20.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s Next For Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n

Ari Paul, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of BlockTower Capital, offered a wide-ranging view on Bitcoin\u2019s trajectory and the broader macroeconomic environment. In a tariffs and mass layoffs mostly). Then it\u2019s a political question \u2013 does Trump admin \u2018capitulate\u2019 and turn severely inflationary? In vast majority of similar cases in history the answer was yes, but just a low confidence guess to me currently.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shifting focus to crypto, Paul emphasized that while cryptocurrencies may still display short-term correlations with equities, they are inherently on different cyclical rhythms: \u201cWhat does that mean for crypto? I continue to think crypto and equities are on different cycles rhythms, but that doesn\u2019t negate shorter term correlation. Alts probably follow equities down at least at first (but they\u2019re already down so much, even versus 2021 prices, they may bottom well before equities.)\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaking on Bitcoin, Paul predicts that the leading cryptocurrency will \u201cact like a blend of gold and S&P 500,\u201d adding, \u201cif gold remains strong, than that would suggest Bitcoin would outperform losing equities, but maybe not by much. A retrace to ~$73k-$77k seems plausible, I\u2019d probably add there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the near-term volatility, Paul remains optimistic: \u201cI remain confident crypto bull market not over, but this is looking increasingly different from prior cycles, maybe substantially slower and longer. My base case is that crypto will lead the general macro inflation turn, so maybe crypto bull run resumes in 6 months and equities turn up in 9. The dates given are just indications of my guesstimates. I place no weight on the exact timeframes.\u201d<\/p>\n

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes also took to X to warn<\/a> of an imminent downward push. He pointed to the mechanics of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and futures market arbitrage as potential drivers of increased selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\u201cBitcoin goblin town incoming: Lots of IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries. If that basis drops as BTC falls, then these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures. These funds are in profit, and given basis is close to UST yields they will unwind during US hours and realise their profit. $70,000 I see you mofo,\u201d he writes.<\/p>\n

Notably, research firm 10x Research published<\/a> an analysis on Monday indicating that while Bitcoin ETFs\u2014led by BlackRock\u2019s IBIT product\u2014have garnered $38.6 billion in net inflows since their January 2024 launch, much of this capital may not represent straightforward bets on rising BTC prices, aligning with Hayes\u2019 statement.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $38.6 billion in net inflows since their January 2024 launch, our analysis suggests that only $17.5 billion (44%) represents genuine long-only buying. The majority\u201456%\u2014is likely tied to arbitrage strategies, where short Bitcoin futures positions offset inflows,\u201d the firm noted.<\/p>\n

Prior to the ongoing price drop, market technician Tony \u201cThe Bull\u201d Severino, warned<\/a> of looming volatility in Bitcoin, noting that the daily Bollinger Bands were hitting extreme tightness\u2014a pattern often followed by a significant price swing: \u201cA decision will be made soon in Bitcoin, as the daily Bollinger Bands reach the third-tightest reading since 2018. In late 2018, record tightness led to a 50% decline in just over a month. In mid 2023, record tightness led to a 200% climb in just over 200 days. Which direction does volatility release?\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

With Bitcoin teetering just above $91,000 and the market still reeling from Bybit\u2019s historic hack, the market is at a pivotal juncture. Chart signals, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the unwinding of complex trading strategies collectively draw a clouded outlook with a possible extension of this slump to the $73,000\u2013$77,000 range in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, this does not have to herald the beginning of the bear market. Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder VC, commented<\/a> via X: \u201cIn the middle of 2021:BTC drew down 56%, ETH drew down 61%, SOL drew down 67%, many others 70-80%+. You can come up with all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we’re going through isn’t unprecedented. Those calling for a full blown bear are misguided.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $90,537.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin price has fallen more than -8.8% since Friday when Bybit suffered the biggest crypto hack in history. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $99,493 late last week, only to retreat to roughly $91,500 at press time, marking a -5.5% decline since Monday. This downturn not only shatters Bitcoin\u2019s attempt to hold…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119],"tags":[56,391,1842,69,182,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-3313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-crash","tag-bitcoin-new","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}