\u201cOne day, you buy and then quickly sell after digesting the next headline,\u201d Hayes warns. \u201cThe market chops you in the process, and your stack quickly diminishes.\u201d He recommends sticking to a simpler outlook: If the U.S. government prints significant amounts of money at lower rates, risk assets like Bitcoin can surge.<\/p>\n
A key premise of Hayes\u2019s analysis is that President Trump, a \u201creal estate showman\u201d by background, will debt finance his \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda rather than embrace austerity. Hayes contrasts Trump with Andrew Mellon\u2014Treasury Secretary under Herbert Hoover\u2014who once allegedly declared: \u201cLiquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hayes argues that such a stance would be political suicide for a president seeking to be viewed as the 21st-century Franklin D. Roosevelt rather than Hoover. As Hayes puts it, \u201cTrump wants to be considered the greatest President ever\u201d and is therefore inclined to loosen credit conditions rather than tighten them.<\/p>\n
Hayes highlights Trump\u2019s unconventional maneuver to slash federal spending and potentially trigger a recession, thereby forcing the Federal Reserve to respond with rate cuts and fresh liquidity. The newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by high-profile entrepreneur Elon Musk, is portrayed as an aggressive effort to expose fraud and reduce waste in government programs.<\/p>\n
Hayes cites DOGE\u2019s claims that Social Security payments may be going out to deceased individuals or unverified identities, supposedly costing hundreds of billions\u2014or even a trillion\u2014dollars a year. \u201cTrump and DOGE are firing hundreds of thousands of government employees,\u201d Hayes notes, referencing media reports citing elevated jobless claims in the Washington, D.C., area.<\/p>\n
By cutting federal budgets so drastically and so quickly, Trump could\u2014in Hayes\u2019s words\u2014\u201ccause a recession or convince the market that one is right around the corner.\u201d<\/p>\n
Once signs of recession appear, Hayes predicts Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have little choice but to cut rates, end quantitative tightening (QT), and potentially restart quantitative easing (QE) to avert a widespread financial crisis. Powell, whom Hayes dubs a \u201cturncoat traitor\u201d (a reference to the Fed\u2019s past rate cut during Kamala Harris\u2019s campaign), is nonetheless bound by the Fed\u2019s mandate to maintain economic stability.<\/p>\n
Hayes points to $2.08 trillion in US corporate debt and $10 trillion in US Treasury debt that must roll over in 2025. If the economy slows, rolling that debt over at high interest rates becomes unfeasible. In that scenario, the Fed\u2019s only salvation is fresh money creation and lower rates.<\/p>\n
Hayes calculates that a full Fed response\u2014encompassing several policy shifts\u2014could result in as much as $2.74 to $3.24 trillion in new liquidity: Dropping the Federal Funds Rate from 4.25% to 0% could be equivalent to roughly $1.7 trillion of money printing, according to Hayes\u2019s estimates.<\/p>\n
Currently, the Fed conducts $60 billion per month in QT. If QT ends by April 2025, Hayes sees a $540 billion liquidity injection relative to prior expectations. Additional Treasury purchases by the Fed or US commercial banks (the latter aided by a relaxation of the Supplemental Leverage Ratio) might add another $500 billion to $1 trillion in dollar credit.<\/p>\n
He compares this to the $4 trillion in stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that Bitcoin jumped roughly 24x from its 2020 lows to 2021 highs in response to that liquidity wave, Hayes says even a more conservative 10x multiple could be in play. \u201cFor those who ask how we get to $1 million in Bitcoin during the Trump presidency, this is how,\u201d he proclaims, linking massive credit creation with a sharply higher BTC price.<\/p>\n
Despite his bullish long-term forecast, Hayes believes Bitcoin\u2019s immediate outlook may be rocky. Hayes sees potential for Bitcoin to revisit the $70,000 to $80,000 range in the short-term\u2014levels that are markedly above the prior cycle\u2019s all-time high but still below the current market. \u201cIf Bitcoin leads the market on the downside, it will also do so on the upside,\u201d Hayes writes, positing that BTC often bottoms out before traditional equities.<\/p>\n
He cites the significant run-up to $110,000 around mid-January (Trump\u2019s inauguration timeline) followed by a pullback to $78,000 in late February. \u201cBitcoin is screaming that a liquidity crisis is nigh, even though the U.S. stock market indices are still near their all-time highs,\u201d he notes. \u201cI firmly believe we are still in a bull cycle, and as such, the bottom at worst will be the previous cycle\u2019s all-time high of $70,000,\u201d Hayes says, underscoring his conviction that any major dips are opportunities to accumulate rather than panic-sell.<\/p>\n
In Hayes\u2019s view, the \u201cKiss of Death\u201d is not about Bitcoin\u2019s demise but about the outdated fiat system struggling to contain spiraling debt loads and political brinkmanship. He argues that the short-term chaos in traditional markets\u2014triggered by DOGE-driven spending cuts and a hesitant Fed\u2014will ultimately pave the way for a new round of monetary expansion.<\/p>\n
The bottom line? Hayes insists that staying focused on liquidity is the best strategy: \u201cLet politicians do politician things, stay in your lane, and buy Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $83,725.<\/p>\n
![\"bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/BTCUSDT_2025-03-04_11-29-19.png?resize=3628%2C1605\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In his latest blog post, titled \u201cKISS of Death,\u201d former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes outlines a provocative thesis on the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader financial markets under the renewed presidency of Donald Trump. Hayes\u2014who has long held bullish views on crypto\u2014argues that a convergence of fiscal and monetary policies could catapult Bitcoin\u2019s price to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3438,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119],"tags":[433,56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-3437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3437\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3438"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}