He explained that while the dollar\u2019s recent decline supports a bullish framework for Bitcoin, rising Treasury bond volatility (tracked by the MOVE Index) and widening corporate bond spreads are causing concern: Coutts emphasized the role of US Treasuries as the global collateral asset. Any spike in their volatility, he argued, forces lenders to impose larger haircuts on collateral, tightening liquidity. \u201cRising volatility forces lenders to apply haircuts on collateral, thereby tightening liquidity. [\u2026] Above 110 [on the MOVE Index] and I suspect there will be a few concerns at the central planner levels.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/GlpUUzlaAAAfxmX.png?resize=1349%2C508\")
<\/p>\n
Over the past three weeks, US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been widening, a shift Coutts views as a signal that risk assets\u2014including Bitcoin\u2014could face pressure: \u201cThis suggests that the demand keeping yields compressed relative to Treasuries is fading\u2014and further widening could be negative for risk assets.\u201d<\/p>\n
Despite these cautionary flags, Coutts remains optimistic about Bitcoin\u2019s medium-term prospects, primarily due to the dollar\u2019s \u201crapid decline.\u201d He noted that the dollar\u2019s drop in March\u2014one of the most significant monthly dips in 12 years\u2014historically has coincided with bullish inflection points in Bitcoin\u2019s price. According to his research, \u201cThey have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).\u201d<\/p>\n
While acknowledging the limited historical dataset for Bitcoin, Coutts also cited key catalysts he believes could propel the digital asset higher:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Nation-State Adoption: \u201cA global nation-state race is underway,\u201d Coutts wrote, describing a scenario in which countries either include Bitcoin in their strategic reserves or ramp up mining efforts.<\/li>\n
- Corporate Accumulation: He points to the possibility of companies\u2014particularly Strategy (MSTR)\u2014adding 100,000 to 200,000 BTC this year.<\/li>\n
- ETF Positions: Exchange-traded funds may \u201cdouble their positions,\u201d further driving institutional inflows.<\/li>\n
- Liquidity Dynamics: In Coutts\u2019s words, \u201cThe Spice Must Flow.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Coutts also mentioned that Bitcoin appears to be \u201cfilling a big gap\u201d and reiterated his view that a slide below the high-$70,000 range would signal a fundamental market shift. Meanwhile, he sees central bankers edging closer to possible intervention as Treasury volatility and credit spreads climb: \u201cIf Treasury volatility and bond spreads keep rising, asset prices will continue their decline. Meanwhile, this will likely push the central planners to act.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin's](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/GlpPOz8bkAA8ajw.png?resize=1392%2C751\")
<\/p>\nIn closing, Coutts offered a concise summary of why he believes Bitcoin is effectively locked in a showdown with central banks: \u201cThink of Bitcoin as a high-stakes game of chicken with the central planners. With their options dwindling\u2014and assuming HODLers remain unleveraged\u2014the odds are increasingly in the Bitcoin owner\u2019s favor.\u201d<\/p>\n
For now, the world\u2019s largest cryptocurrency appears to be treading a line between macroeconomic headwinds\u2014highlighted by a volatile bond market\u2014and the tailwinds of a weakening dollar. Whether Bitcoin continues to retreat or resumes its long-term ascent will likely depend on how global policymakers respond to mounting bond market pressures\u2014and whether holders are prepared to keep playing \u201cchicken\u201d with the central planners.<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $82,091.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/BTCUSDT_2025-03-10_08-30-33.png?resize=3628%2C1605\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s price endured another bout of volatility over the weekend, shedding 5% on Sunday to dip below the $80,000 mark, before settling near $82,000. This latest decline places the cryptocurrency roughly 25% below its all-time high of $109,900. Analysts attribute the downturn to ongoing trade tensions\u2014linked to President Donald Trump\u2019s latest tariff measures\u2014and the fears…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121,1933],"class_list":["post-3555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-dxy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3555\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}