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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who now runs the family-office-style fund Maelstrom, believes the macro cocktail that ignited Bitcoin\u2019s six-fold advance from late 2022 into early 2025 is being mixed again. Speaking on the \u201cForward Guidance\u201d podcast just minutes after a market-soothing Trump press conference, Hayes said the present environment \u201cfeels like November 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Hayes\u2019s stealth quantitative easing that needs no input from the Fed.\u201d Hayes cited his own arithmetic from the previous episode: between September 2022 and early 2025, Bitcoin rose roughly 6x while the Fed\u2019s balance sheet was ostensibly shrinking, a move he attributes almost entirely to Treasury-engineered liquidity.<\/p>\n
That dynamic, he contends, has returned. The Trump administration\u2019s initial \u201cmaximalist\u201d tariff schedule, announced in mid-April and aimed at slashing the US current-account deficit, triggered a brief but violent sell-off in bonds and equities before Trump began \u201cconcession after concession.\u201d The rapid policy retreat, Hayes said, confirms that \u201cthe American financial system is so highly levered it couldn\u2019t take one week\u201d of trade hardball. To him, that single week exposed the political impossibility of fiscal retrenchment and made additional money creation inevitable. \u201cThey can call it whatever they want\u2014just don\u2019t call it QE\u2014but it has the same effect: liquidity rises and Bitcoin benefits.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hayes\u2019s decoupling thesis rests on arithmetic as much as narrative. If tariffs do trim the current-account gap, the mirror-image financial-account surplus must also fall, reducing foreign demand for US mega cap stocks.<\/p>\n
\u201cMathematically, if Trump is serious, foreigners have to sell stocks. Period,\u201d he said. In that world, Bitcoin\u2019s flows are driven not by equity beta but by a global scramble for neutral stores of value amid escalating currency and trade friction. He expects \u201cUS-tech exceptionalism\u201d to fade just as Bitcoin\u2019s structural bid strengthens.<\/p>\n
The former BitMEX chief also sees a latent tail-risk in Japan. A stronger yen, encouraged by Washington to help weaken the dollar, could force Japanese investors to unwind enormous USD carry trades, dumping Treasuries and pushing yields toward levels that would \u201ccorner the Fed into covert curve control.\u201d<\/p>\n
Any volatility spike of that kind, Hayes noted, historically elicits a rapid-fire response from the Federal Reserve\u2014even if it arrives cloaked as a new alphabet facility rather than outright bond-buying. \u201cEvery time bond-market volatility spikes, the Fed does something,\u201d he remarked. \u201cIt might not be QE in the traditional form, but it leads to the same outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n
Throughout the hour-long conversation Hayes returned to November 2022 as the template. Back then, markets were reeling from the aftermath of FTX and bond yields were surging, yet Bitcoin began a relentless grind upward as the Treasury tapped the reverse-repo basin for fresh cash. Today, he sees an echo: \u201cThis feels like November 2022,\u201d he told host Felix Jauvin. \u201cShit\u2019s going up.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Hayes stopped short of naming a price target, the implication was clear. In 2022\u201325 the stealth-liquidity wave took Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to above $100,000. With Besson\u2019s buyback machinery \u201cready to go\u201d and political appetite for austerity already exhausted, Hayes says the stage is set for a sequel.<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $92,559.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who now runs the family-office-style fund Maelstrom, believes the macro cocktail that ignited Bitcoin\u2019s six-fold advance from late 2022 into early 2025 is being mixed again. Speaking on the \u201cForward Guidance\u201d podcast just minutes after a market-soothing Trump press conference, Hayes said the present environment \u201cfeels like November 2022.\u201d…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4397,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[433,56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-4396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4396\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}