{"id":4647,"date":"2025-05-08T18:13:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T18:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-soars-toward-100000-as-treasury-not-fed-drives-liquidity-expert\/"},"modified":"2025-05-08T18:13:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T18:13:09","slug":"bitcoin-soars-toward-100000-as-treasury-not-fed-drives-liquidity-expert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-soars-toward-100000-as-treasury-not-fed-drives-liquidity-expert\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Soars Toward $100,000 As Treasury, Not Fed, Drives Liquidity: Expert"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and principal of Maelstrom Capital, contends that the US Treasury\u2014rather than the Federal Reserve\u2014is the true engine of the current bull market in risk assets, Bitcoin foremost among them. Speaking in a live-streamed one-on-one interview<\/a> Wednesday evening, Hayes argued that traders should \u201cignore Powell\u201d and instead parse every word and data table that comes out of the Treasury\u2019s quarterly refunding announcement.<\/p>\n

\u201cPowell hasn\u2019t really mattered for many years,\u201d Hayes insisted, dismissing the Fed chair\u2019s decision to leave the federal-funds rate at 4.25 % to 4.50 % for a third consecutive meeting. \u201cThe real show is at the Treasury Department. [\u2026] Listen to Bessent. Ignore Powell. He\u2019s irrelevant.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes\u2019s thesis rests on a liquidity dynamic that first surfaced in the third quarter of 2022. Then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, he said, spotted \u201ctwo-and-a-half trillion dollars of excess money sitting in the Fed\u2019s reverse repo facility\u201d and shifted issuance toward short-dated Treasury bills. That maneuver, by Hayes\u2019s calculation, siphoned dormant cash out of the Fed and \u201cinjected it into the global money markets,\u201d seeding a broad rally that lifted equities, bonds, gold and\u2014most forcefully\u2014crypto. \u201cPowell didn\u2019t matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime,\u201d he said. \u201cHe doesn\u2019t matter today under the Republican regime.\u201d<\/p>\n

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent\u2019s newly minted authority to conduct buybacks is, in Hayes\u2019s view, the next accelerant. Buybacks would allow the Treasury to recycle on-the-run securities and absorb supply shocks without forcing the Fed to expand its balance sheet overtly. \u201cBessent has tools,\u201d Hayes noted, citing an April 11\u201312 Bloomberg appearance. \u201cPowell will sit back and say \u2018I\u2019m going to look at data,\u2019 but he\u2019s a sideshow.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s Macro Logic<\/h2>\n

Hayes reduces the trading implications to a single variable: the quantity of fiat dollars in circulation. \u201cIf there is a bigger quantity of fiat dollars in the world than there were yesterday, Bitcoin and crypto will do well,\u201d he said. Price-stability debates, exchange-rate gyrations and even the trajectory of the US Dollar Index (DXY) are secondary. \u201cBitcoin doesn\u2019t care. All we care about is: Is there more dollars in the system today than yesterday?\u201d
\nThat framework underpins his long-running forecast that Bitcoin can reach $1 million before 2028. The target is deliberately round\u2014\u201cWe\u2019re humans, we\u2019re dumb, let\u2019s just pick a round number that\u2019s big\u201d\u2014yet Hayes grounds it in compounding fiscal pressures.<\/p>\n

Interest on the US national debt was the fastest-growing line item in the most recent Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee presentation; Social Security, Medicare and defense costs, he argued, will only push borrowing needs higher. \u201cThere\u2019s just no way the US government is going to stop spending money,\u201d he said, adding that he expects \u201can acceleration of money printing and fiscal debasement\u201d once Powell\u2019s term expires in May 2026.<\/p>\n

Asked how he is allocating capital, Hayes said about 60%\u201365% of his liquid portfolio is in Bitcoin, 20% in Ether, with the remainder in a handful of what he called \u201cquality shitcoins.\u201d He highlighted three projects\u2014Pendle, EtherFi and Ethena\u2014as examples of what he calls \u201cfundamental season,\u201d protocols that generate real revenue and share it with token-holders.<\/p>\n

The timing of a broader rotation into altcoins, he added, will depend on Bitcoin dominance. \u201cI think we need to get above 70% before we start seeing a rotation back into alts,\u201d a threshold he tentatively places in the $110,000\u2013$150,000 BTC price range.<\/p>\n

Hayes was skeptical that the US\u2013China tariff confrontation will meaningfully shrink the bilateral trade gap. Both sides, he said, need a \u201cface-saving announcement\u201d for domestic audiences, but the United States will continue importing Chinese goods, whether directly or through third-countries. Over time, he expects Washington to rely less on tariffs and more on capital-account measures\u2014such as user fees on Treasuries held by foreigners\u2014to re-engineer trade flows without asking US consumers to \u201cbuy less stuff.\u201d<\/p>\n

A weaker dollar, in his model, is a by-product of those adjustments, not a centrally planned objective. \u201cIf foreigners sell less things in dollars and those dollars are not invested in the financial markets, the dollar will go down in value,\u201d he said. That, again, feeds the Bitcoin bid.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $98,827.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and principal of Maelstrom Capital, contends that the US Treasury\u2014rather than the Federal Reserve\u2014is the true engine of the current bull market in risk assets, Bitcoin foremost among them. Speaking in a live-streamed one-on-one interview Wednesday evening, Hayes argued that traders should \u201cignore Powell\u201d and instead parse every word…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[433,56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-4647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4647"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4647\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}