Hayes centres his argument on the Pentagon\u2019s newly announced deal with MP\u202fMaterials, under which the US Defense Department will become the miner\u2019s largest shareholder, guarantee a floor price for critical rare\u2011earth elements at twice China\u2019s current market rate, and back a $1\u202fbillion bank loan to build a Nevada processing plant. The structure, he writes, is the template for \u201cQE\u202f4\u202fPoor People,\u201d a credit\u2011multiplier that expands the money supply without formal Congressional approval.<\/p>\n
In his schematic example a single commercial\u2011bank loan to MP\u202fMaterials \u201ccreates $1,000 of new fiat wampum,\u201d then ripples outward as wages, deposits and discounted Treasury borrowing. \u201cThe money multiplier is\u202f>\u202f1, and this wartime production leads to an increase in economic activity, which is accounted for as \u2018growth,\u2019\u201d Hayes observes. The result, he says, is inevitable inflation, yet also \u201cgovernment\u2011guaranteed profits\u201d for banks and industry.<\/p>\n
Why Bitcoin And Crypto Is The Bubble Of Choice<\/h2>\n
Hayes\u2019 historical analogy is China\u2019s 1990s\u20132020s property boom, where a five\u2011thousand\u2011percent expansion of M2 forced households into apartments, inflating land values and local\u2011government coffers. In the United States, he contends, the socially acceptable pressure valve will be digital assets.<\/p>\n
Two policy shifts underpin that call. First, retirement plans\u2014an $8.7\u202ftrillion pool\u2014may now allocate to crypto under a recent executive order. Second, the Trump campaign\u2019s floated proposal to eliminate capital\u2011gains tax on digital assets could, in Hayes\u2019 words, provide \u201cinsane war\u2011driven credit growth\u201d with \u201cno fucking taxes.\u201d The broader attraction for politicians, he claims, is demographic: younger and more diverse investors own crypto in greater proportions than they own equities, so a bull market would \u201ccreate a broader, more diverse set of people who are pleased with the ruling party\u2019s economic platform.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even a credit\u2011fuelled boom must find an audience for the mounting federal deficit. Hayes\u2019 solution is the stablecoin sector, which already places most of its assets under custody in US Treasury bills. On-chain data, he notes, suggest that roughly nine cents of every new dollar in total crypto market value migrates into stablecoins. \u201cLet\u2019s assume that Trump propels the total crypto market cap to\u202f$100\u202ftrillion by 2028,\u201d he writes; \u201cthat would create roughly $9\u202ftrillion in T\u2011bill purchasing power.\u201d<\/p>\n
The mechanism recalls World War\u202fII financing, when the Treasury skewed issuance toward short\u2011term bills. In Hayes\u2019 view, a self\u2011reinforcing loop emerges: wartime procurement fuels credit expansion, higher credit lifts crypto, larger crypto capitalization feeds stablecoin demand for T\u2011bills, and those purchases backstop further deficits.<\/p>\n
Trading Tactics\u2014And The Year\u2011End Call<\/h2>\n
Against that macro backdrop Hayes declares his investment vehicle, Maelstrom, \u201cfully invested,\u201d and explains why: \u201cIt\u2019s pretty simple: Maelstrom is fully invested. Because we are degens, the shitcoin space offers amazing opportunities to outperform Bitcoin, the crypto reserve asset. […] Ether has been the most hated large-cap crypto. No more; the Western institutional investor class, whose chief cheerleader is Tom Lee, loves Ether. Buy first, ask questions later.\u201d<\/p>\n
His numerical convictions are explicit: Bitcoin\u202f$250,000 and Ether\u202f$10,000 by 31\u202fDecember\u202f2025. The Western credit geyser is, he writes, \u201cabout to tear the market a new asshole.\u201d Yet he repeatedly reminds readers that these are personal views, not investment advice.<\/p>\n
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $118,368.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-23_11-08-30.png?resize=1024%2C454\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Arthur\u202fHayes has never been shy about big numbers, but his latest essay, Time\u202fSignature, frames those targets inside a sweeping macro thesis: a wartime\u2011style US credit boom that\u2014if it unfolds as he expects\u2014could send Bitcoin and crypto markets into their largest bubble yet. Writing on\u202f22\u202fJuly, the BitMEX co\u2011founder argues that financial markets, like dancers, must keep…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6109,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[56,55,182,61,120,33,64,144,112,66,88,92],"class_list":["post-6108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-eth","tag-eth-news","tag-ether","tag-ethereum","tag-ethereum-news","tag-ethereum-price-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}