The ETF flow data was central to his outlook. While Ethereum recently saw a resurgence in ETF inflows\u2014contributing to one of its strongest Julys ever\u2014Bitcoin\u2019s flows flipped negative. \u201cFlows, if anything, are what can save us in these two months of doldrums,\u201d he said, referring to August and September. Yet, the current trajectory shows little promise of reversal. \u201cThe decision tree got a lot wider after breaking down,\u201d he explained. \u201cBecause in the next two months, it\u2019s generally junk. That\u2019s just what it is.\u201d<\/p>\n
Olszewicz underscored the seasonal softness of Q3 for both equities and crypto, particularly emphasizing that historically, August and September are low-activity months. \u201cWake me up when September ends,\u201d he quipped, reinforcing that traders should expect little from the market until October\u2014a month historically associated with strong performance. \u201cYou do not want to miss October, even if October is negative 80%. This is about probabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n
From a technical perspective, Olszewicz noted that Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable zone after stalling at the yearly pivot around $122,000. \u201cDespite this great-looking chart pattern, we just stopped dead cold at $122,000,\u201d he said. \u201cIf we break $122,000, the next level is $150,000\u2014that\u2019s psychological, it\u2019s the measured move, and it\u2019s the yearly pivot.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, a more immediate concern lies in the potential for a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. \u201cIt\u2019s a Pavlovian response. Bearish TK cross, you close your longs,\u201d he said bluntly. \u201cIf we revisit 100 at this point, you\u2019re going to get a lot of people talking about end-of-cycle stuff.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Commitment of Traders (COT) data from CME further amplifies the caution. \u201cCommercials have dropped off a cliff,\u201d Olszewicz warned. \u201cNot something you want to see if you\u2019re bullish.\u201d The data suggests a sharp reduction in institutional positioning on the long side, adding another layer of headwind for the BTC price.<\/p>\n
Still, not all is lost. Olszewicz pointed to historical precedents, such as the difficult August and September of 2023 when Bitcoin was battered by Mt. Gox distributions and German government sell-offs. Despite the noise, Bitcoin rallied in October following the approval of spot ETFs and held above the cloud for an extended period. \u201cIt can look like the end for many, many reasons, and we can still make it,\u201d he stressed.<\/p>\n
For traders looking to re-enter the market, he identified the $117K\u2013$120K range as a potential re-entry zone if BTC can reclaim that area within the next two weeks. \u201cIt\u2019s up to the bulls to hold this just flat for two weeks,\u201d he said. \u201cIt shouldn\u2019t be that hard to do if there are buyers in this market.\u201d<\/p>\n
But until then, he remains on the sidelines: \u201cThere\u2019s just nothing to do. It\u2019s in no man\u2019s land at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
With Bitcoin in a technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets, Olszewicz made it clear that forcing trades in this environment could prove costly. His advice? Stay patient, stay liquid, and watch October.<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $114,517.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/BTCUSDT_2025-08-04_10-26-13.png?resize=1024%2C454\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin may be stuck in limbo until October, according to crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz, who delivered a sobering assessment of the current market setup during his August 3 video analysis. The veteran trader described Bitcoin\u2019s technicals and seasonal context as fundamentally uninviting, cautioning that \u201cthere\u2019s nothing to do\u201d until a more compelling risk-reward profile emerges\u2014likely…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6349,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-6348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}