Edwards does not deny that cycles exist. He reframes their causes. Reflexive investor behavior, macro liquidity, on-chain valuation extremes, and derivatives-market \u201ceuphoria\u201d can still combine to produce sizable drawdowns. But if the halving calendar no longer dictates those inflection points, investors must recalibrate the signals they monitor and the timelines on which they expect risk to crystalize.<\/p>\n
On reflexivity, he cautions that belief in the four-year script can itself become a price driver. If \u201cenough Bitcoiners believe in the 4 year cycle\u2026 they will structure their investing activities around it,\u201d he notes, invoking George Soros\u2019s notion that market narratives feed back into fundamentals. That self-fulfilling element can still trigger \u201csizeable drawdowns,\u201d even if miners are no longer the marginal price-setters.<\/p>\n
Macro liquidity, in Edwards\u2019s framework, remains decisive. He tracks a \u201cNet Liquidity\u201d gauge\u2014the year-over-year growth in global broad money minus the cost of debt (proxied by US 10-year Treasury yields)\u2014to distinguish genuinely expansive regimes from nominal money growth that is offset by higher rates.<\/p>\n
Historically, \u201cAll of Bitcoin\u2019s historic bear markets have occurred while this metric was declining\u2026 with the depths\u2026 while this metric was less than zero,\u201d he writes, whereas \u201cAll of Bitcoin\u2019s major bull runs have occurred in positive Net Liquidity environments.\u201d As of mid-August, he characterizes conditions as constructive: \u201cWe are currently in a positive liquidity environment and the Fed is now forecast to cut rates 3 times in the remainder of 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n
On-Chain Data Is Still Supportive<\/h2>\n
If liquidity sets the tide, euphoria marks the froth. Edwards points to established on-chain gauges\u2014MVRV, NVT, Energy Value\u2014that have historically flashed red at cycle peaks. Those indicators, he says, are not yet there: \u201cIn 2025 we still see no signs of onchain Euphoria. Bitcoin today is appreciating in a steady, relatively sustainable way versus historic cycles.\u201d<\/p>\n
A chart of MVRV Z-Score \u201cshows we are nowhere near the price euphoria of historic Bitcoin tops.\u201d By contrast, his derivatives composite\u2014the \u201cHeater,\u201d which aggregates positioning and leverage across perps, futures, and options\u2014has been hot enough to warrant short-term caution. \u201cThe heat is on\u2026 Of all the metrics we will look at here, this one is telling us that the market locally has overheated near all time highs this week.\u201d In his telling, elevated Heater readings can cap near-term upside unless they persist for months alongside rising open interest\u2014conditions more consistent with a major top.<\/p>\n
One metric, however, eclipses the rest in 2025\u201326: institutional absorption of new supply. \u201cToday, 150+ public companies and ETFs are buying over 500% of Bitcoin\u2019s daily supply creation from mining,\u201d Edwards writes. \u201cWhen demand outruns supply like this, Bitcoin has historically surged over the coming months. Every time this has happened in Bitcoin\u2019s history (5 occurrences), price has shot up by 135% on average.\u201d He emphasizes that the current, extended period of high multiples on this measure is \u201cgood news for Bitcoin,\u201d while conceding the obvious caveat: no one can know how long such conditions will last.<\/p>\n
Because institutional demand can flip to supply, Edwards details a \u201ctreasury company early warning system.\u201d He highlights four watch-items that his team tracks \u201c24\/7 for cycle risk management and positioning purposes\u201d: a Treasury Buy-Sell Ratio that, if falling, \u201csuggests growing selling by the 150+ companies\u201d; a Treasury CVD whose flattening or lurch into a \u201cred zone\u201d is \u201crisk off\u201d; the percentage of Coinbase volume that is net buying; and a Treasury Company Seller Count that, on spikes, has historically preceded pressure.<\/p>\n
Layered on top is balance-sheet fragility. The more treasuries lever up to accumulate Bitcoin, the more a drawdown can cascade through forced deleveraging. \u201cTotal Debt relative to Enterprise value are key to track,\u201d he says, adding that Capriole will publish a fresh tranche of treasury-risk metrics \u201cnext week.\u201d<\/p>\n
Quantum Computers Vs. Bitcoin<\/h2>\n
Edwards then makes an argument many Bitcoin investors will find uncomfortable: quantum computing is both an attractive return opportunity and Bitcoin\u2019s most concrete long-term tail risk. Capriole, he says, expects \u201cthe asset class will outperform Bitcoin by circa 50% p.a. over the next 5\u201310 years,\u201d citing today\u2019s small market capitalizations against a \u201c$2T+\u201d addressable market.<\/p>\n
At the same time, \u201cin the long-term (without change) QC is existential to Bitcoin,\u201d with a worst-case window of \u201c3\u20136 years\u201d to break the cryptography that secures wallets and transactions. He notes that China \u201cis spending 5X more on QC than the US\u201d and recently \u201cpresented a QC machine a million times more powerful than Google\u2019s,\u201d arguing that the pace of breakthroughs, \u201cwith\u2026 innovations occurring every quarter,\u201d suggests \u201cthis technology will mature sooner than many think. Just like ChatGPT.\u201d<\/p>\n
The operational challenge, even if the risk is not imminent, is the migration path. Edwards sketches back-of-the-envelope constraints: roughly 25 million Bitcoin addresses hold more than $100; on \u201ca good day,\u201d the network handles about 10 transactions per second. If everyone tried to rotate to quantum-resistant keys at once\u2014and many would prudently send test transactions\u2014it would take \u201c3\u20136 months\u201d just to push the transactions through, before even counting the time to achieve consensus on, and deploy, a preferred upgrade. \u201cOptimistically we are looking at a 12 month lead time to move the Bitcoin network to a Quantum proof system,\u201d he writes. He flags work by Jameson Lopp as a starting point and urges the community to \u201cencourage action on the QC Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPS).\u201d Capriole itself holds quantum-computing exposure both for return potential and as \u201ca portfolio hedge should a worst case scenario eventuate.\u201d<\/p>\n
His conclusion is clear without being complacent. \u201cThe Bitcoin miner driven cycle is largely dead.\u201d If institutional demand holds, \u201cthere is a strong chance of a right translated cycle,\u201d with \u201ca significant period of price expansion still ahead of us.\u201d But vigilance is essential.<\/p>\n
The two variables to prioritize this halving epoch, in his view, are \u201cNet Liquidity and Institutional Buying,\u201d while the \u201cbiggest risk to this cycle\u201d is paradoxically the cohort that has powered it: the Bitcoin treasury companies whose balance-sheet choices can compound both upside and downside. Quantum computing, he stresses, \u201cisn\u2019t a risk to Bitcoin this Halving cycle,\u201d but absent action \u201cit certainly will be in the next one.\u201d The prescription is not to fear cycles, but to retire the outdated ones and prepare\u2014technically and operationally\u2014for the cycles that remain.<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $119,121.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/BTCUSDT_2025-08-15_08-52-33.png?resize=1024%2C471\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Capriole founder Charles Edwards argues that Bitcoin\u2019s famous four-year boom-and-bust pattern has effectively ended\u2014not because markets have matured into a placid equilibrium, but because the engine that once forced 80\u201390% drawdowns has been dismantled by Bitcoin\u2019s own monetary design. The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead In his Update #66 newsletter published on August 15, 2025,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6561,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121,3232,3233],"class_list":["post-6560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-capriole-investments","tag-charles-edwards"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6560\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6561"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}