![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/BTCUSDT_2025-08-18_11-04-16.png?resize=1024%2C471\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz expects Bitcoin to endure a grinding, probabilistic market over the next six weeks before conditions improve into the fourth quarter, warning that September seasonality, softening momentum signals, and mixed ETF flow dynamics argue for patience rather than leverage. \u201cThe TL;DW is probably chopped and bearish near-term, bullish Q4,\u201d he said in an August 18 video, adding that the path to a cleaner upside impulse is explicitly conditional on a handful of technical and flow triggers rather than a single catalyst.<\/p>\n
Olszewicz set us up for Q4.\u201d While he noted, \u201cWe did have $550 million in a week, which is pretty good for any ETF\u2026 still a solid number\u2026 not zero,\u201d he contrasted that with earlier, much larger weekly tallies and observed that corporate treasury buying\u2014\u201cstill a lot of sellers obviously if price hasn\u2019t gone anywhere\u201d\u2014has slowed from peak pace. The implication is not overt bearishness, but \u201ctime, not price\u201d: either sharp pullbacks in names that ran or \u201cdead sideways for six weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n
On Bitcoin\u2019s chart, Olszewicz reduces the debate to a well-defined line in the sand and a small set of Ichimoku- and trend-based triggers. \u201cSince July\u2026 $121\u2013$122,000 is still the imaginary line in the sand\u2026 a daily close above that level, I\u2019m good with higher,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cAbove $120,000 it\u2019s easy. I like $150,000.\u201d Until that break, he sees \u201cchop\u201d dominating.<\/p>\n
He identifies \u201cthe first signs of trouble\u201d as \u201cclosing in the daily cloud and\/or closing below the 20-week moving average\u2014the yellow line there at $104,000,\u201d and stresses the timing nuance: \u201cIf we get a close below the cloud in September, I\u2019m a little less worried than if we get it in October.\u201d A decisive slip late in Q3 rolling into Q4 would be more concerning. \u201cIf we close below $100k in October, then I\u2019m closer to this cycle-over, no-more-cycles camp,\u201d he warned, clarifying, \u201cWe\u2019re far from that currently\u2026 there\u2019s nothing here that\u2019s bearish whatsoever\u2014it\u2019s just momentumless.\u201d<\/p>\n
His preferred system-of-confirmation leans on the Ichimoku suite and a separate cloud backtest he tracks on the BTC daily chart. That model \u201ccaught [the] April move\u201d early; at present it reads \u201cokay,\u201d but he outlines the precise sequence that would flip his bias: \u201cYou need first the bearish TK cross\u2026 and then a close in the cloud\u2026 then there\u2019s a decent edge-to-edge trade.\u201d It\u2019s a decision tree, not a prediction: \u201cIt\u2019s nuanced\u2026 if this, then that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Macro timing could add friction in the interim. He points to Friday\u2019s Jackson Hole appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as the only obvious near-term \u201ccatalyst,\u201d suggesting a hawkish tone\u2014\u201cnot cutting, needing more data, needing more time\u201d\u2014would be a headwind.<\/p>\n
He also mused that \u201cTrump may even announce his replacement before Powell speaks\u2026 just to steal the thunder,\u201d framing it as a headline-risk factor for risk assets, not a base case. Still, the larger macro backdrop\u2014rising global money supply and debt\u2014remains a structural tailwind for scarce assets, in his view: \u201cThat\u2019s going to provide a nice cushion\u2026 as they keep printing money everywhere globally.\u201d<\/p>\n
Olszewicz emphasizes that this doesn\u2019t preclude upside, but it does undercut the probability of trending continuation in the very near term. By contrast, he calls Ethereum\u2019s positioning \u201chorrific\u2026 for the long side,\u201d even as ETH just printed a record ETF-flow week\u2014an apparent paradox he resolves by distinguishing one-week surges from the \u201cstream of continuous flows\u201d that sustains trends. The comparison matters for Bitcoin because a broad-based crypto risk bid is harder to maintain if ETH\u2019s positioning and overbought technicals stall leadership.<\/p>\n
Within Bitcoin\u2019s own market structure, Olszewicz blends tactical caution with the longer-term thesis many cycle investors still hold. He flags that \u201cAugust has been bullish\u201d so far but notes the historical rarity of \u201csix months in a row\u201d of green closes, and he reiterates that traders looking for \u201chigh-conviction moves\u201d with leverage should prefer to wait for signals rather than force exposure in \u201cnothingness.\u201d<\/p>\n
Conversely, for long-horizon holders, he cites the power-law corridor as a reason to avoid second-guessing unless the market fails badly into Q4: \u201cIf you think there\u2019s a\u2026 30\u201350% chance that we actually attempt a parabolic move past the midpoint of the power law\u2026 it\u2019s probably just worth sitting tight as an investor and saying, okay, show it to me.\u201d<\/p>\n
That framework also explains his tolerance for deeper retests without abandoning the larger uptrend. He repeats that there is \u201cplenty [of] room to get angry and go down,\u201d with the 20-week moving average and daily cloud serving as objective guardrails. A September cloud break is a warning; an October cloud break or an October close below $100k would be a far stronger statement about the cycle\u2019s health. Until then, he expects a market \u201cholding levels,\u201d with $121,000\u2013$122,000 as the trigger that would convert \u201cdead momentum\u201d into a genuine impulse.<\/p>\n
For Bitcoin traders, the takeaway is spare and unsentimental. There is no \u201cmagical setup\u201d this week, and the statistically unfriendly month of September looms. The bullish path into Q4 exists, but it must be earned: In the meantime, Olszewicz\u2019s baseline is either rangebound \u201cnothingness\u201d or opportunistic pullbacks that reset overheated pockets of the market. The contingency that flips that script is clear enough to write on a Post-it: maintain the cloud, defend the 20-week around $104,000, and close decisively above $121,000\u2013$122,000. Only then, Bitcoin could target $150,000.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $115,069.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz expects Bitcoin to endure a grinding, probabilistic market over the next six weeks before conditions improve into the fourth quarter, warning that September seasonality, softening momentum signals, and mixed ETF flow dynamics argue for patience rather than leverage. \u201cThe TL;DW is probably chopped and bearish near-term, bullish Q4,\u201d he said in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6617,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-6616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6617"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}