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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s near-term path, argues macro commentator Bruce Florian\u2013founder of the Bitcoin Self-Custody Company Schwarzberg and a bestselling author\u2013is being set far from crypto order books and deep inside the US money markets, where a once-enormous pool of excess cash has finally run dry. In a thread on X, Florian frames the Federal Reserve\u2019s overnight reverse repo facility (RRP) as the \u201csurplus pot\u201d that quietly powered asset prices for two years\u2014and now, with that pot empty, he believes markets are about to feel the unfiltered weight of tighter liquidity.<\/p>\n
Florian reverse repo facility (RRP) is at its lowest level in four years.\u201d He then walks through the basic plumbing. During the pandemic response, \u201cso much money was printed\u2026 there were fewer assets than excess cash,\u201d so banks and money funds \u201cparked [it] with the Fed in the RRP. Safe and earning interest.\u201d As that pool drained, it didn\u2019t disappear\u2014it \u201cwas continuously pumped into the market over the last few years. Mainly into government bonds.\u201d In his accounting, \u201caround $2 trillion in excess liquidity from 2020\/21 flowed into the market over the last 24 months,\u201d keeping valuations buoyant despite higher policy rates and formal quantitative tightening.<\/p>\n
The metaphor he uses is deliberate and evocative: \u201cIt\u2019s like a tanker traveling at full speed. Even if you turn off the engine, it will continue to drift for many kilometers, solely due to the speed it has built up.\u201d For Florian, that drift\u2014the lagged effect of past liquidity\u2014is ending. \u201cNow the propulsion is gone. The surplus pot is empty, and the tanker comes to a standstill.\u201d<\/p>\n
He connects that mechanical turn to the looming supply calendar: \u201cThere are still trillions in government bonds that need to be purchased in the coming months and years.\u201d With the RRP no longer acting as a buyer of first resort, \u201cwe will feel the full brunt of the reduced liquidity since 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n
The near-term cross-asset message is unambiguous. \u201cThis is bad for stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin in the short term,\u201d he writes, adding that \u201cstocks and Bitcoin can afford short respites\u2026 bonds cannot.\u201d The constraint, in his view, is structural: \u201cThe US bond market is the most important market in the world.\u201d If the RRP isn\u2019t there to absorb cash and recycle it into Treasuries, \u201cbond yields will continue to rise to attract investors.\u201d<\/p>\n
That dynamic, he warns, collides with political and macro limits: \u201cinterest rates are already far too high for the current administration.\u201d His base case is that the central bank ultimately has to step in: \u201cThe Fed will likely intervene and rescue the bond market by providing new liquidity.\u201d The path from here is \u201cunclear\u2026 in the short term,\u201d but the contours of the pressure are, in his telling, set by the plumbing.<\/p>\n
Florian repeatedly stresses that any turbulence should not be misread as a Bitcoin-native failure. \u201cThe turmoil is once again coming from the fiat system, not from Bitcoin. Bitcoin merely reflects this development with its volatility.\u201d That framing places Bitcoin downstream of dollar liquidity rather than in opposition to it.<\/p>\n
The market, he cautions, will \u201cdo everything it can to drive you out of your position.\u201d His counsel for positioning is psychological as much as financial: \u201cIf you know what you own, you can stay relaxed.\u201d The long-term thesis remains intact in his mind\u2014\u201cRemember where Bitcoin is headed as an ideal store of value\u201d\u2014but navigating the next phase requires horizon discipline: \u201cBecause if you keep your eyes on the horizon, you won\u2019t get seasick.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $113,736.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin\u2019s near-term path, argues macro commentator Bruce Florian\u2013founder of the Bitcoin Self-Custody Company Schwarzberg and a bestselling author\u2013is being set far from crypto order books and deep inside the US money markets, where a once-enormous pool of excess cash has finally run dry. In a thread on X, Florian frames the Federal Reserve\u2019s overnight reverse…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-6678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6678\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}