Nom opens with disclosures and caveats rather than price calls. \u201cI\u2019m not going to argue whether inflation is good or bad, I have already spent enough time talking on that and look forward to the changes,\u201d he wrote. He also underscores his own positioning and bias: \u201cI am a spot SOL, staked SOL, and locked SOL holder (thanks to an SPV on the estate SOL) \u2026 I would also like tokens I own to go up in value\u2014so a flat token price is bad in my point of view.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the overhang from the FTX bankruptcy estate, Nom contends that the risk is shrinking fast even if it still looms in the narrative. \u201cAt the time of bankruptcy, FTX\u2019s estate held 41m SOL tokens \u2026 with the majority going to the folks at Galaxy and Pantera with strike prices of approximately $64 and $102 \u2026 this is currently massively in the money at Solana\u2019s current ~$190 price tag,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
Based on his reading of staking accounts and vesting schedules, Nom estimates the \u201c\u2018Estate SOL\u2019 is currently at about 5 million units remaining to be unlocked, or about $1b notional.\u201d He sets that against broader unlocks: \u201cFrom the good folks over at 4shpool (gelato.sh) there\u2019s about 21m [units] of Solana remaining to unlock until 2028, or ~$4b notional at current pricing \u2026 \u2018Estate SOL\u2019 is ~1\/4 of all remaining SOL to be unlocked.\u201d<\/p>\n
The thread\u2019s central mechanism is flow versus float. Nom argues that issuance plus unlocks create persistent sell pressure unless matched by price-insensitive buyers. \u201cThis matters for one specific number that we need to focus on, which is the amount of SOL hitting the market on a daily basis,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you give someone tokens for free (staking inflation\/unlocks) or at a discount (FTX SOL) \u2014 you can expect some % of people to sell. I assume 100% of this inflation of 37.5m SOL in the next year to be sold.\u201d That sets a high bar for demand: \u201cIn order to offset 37.5m SOL a year at $200 SOL \u2026 you need ~$7.5b\/year in inflows, or ~$20.5m per day.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Differences Between SOL And ETH<\/h2>\n
Crucially, he argues, DATs can meet that bar more efficiently if they accumulate outside the open market. \u201cIf the DATs can more efficiently buy SOL at a discount from either the estate SOL, or other locked SOL areas, that improves the efficiency of the inflows,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cRaising $400m to buy SOL at a 5% discount is equivalent to $420m in inflows, which is better than $400m in inflows\u2014the only question is how do you equate the time value of buying SOL off the market today, vs removing future sales tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n
He adds that, on his numbers, issuance dominates the supply picture: \u201cOur inflation over the next 3 years is greater than the unlocks (EOY 2028 as end of lock schedules) \u2026 and the FTX SOL is only a quarter of the remaining unlocks\u2014so the DATs buying the estate SOL rather than the market is not a realistic concern.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nom insists the difference between \u201ctrading supply\u201d and headline \u201ccirculating supply\u201d is what makes SOL especially sensitive to steady buyers. \u201cCirculating supply is NOT equivalent to amount available on the market, especially for staked assets. You cannot buy staked SOL, but you can buy LSTs,\u201d he wrote. Citing current snapshots, he notes, \u201cSolana has 384m of its 608m SOL staked currently, or 63.1% off the market. LSTs account for 33.5m SOL, so let\u2019s put that back as supply available to buy and round it to 350m\/508m off the market, or 57.5% off the market and unavailable for purchase (at least with a 2 day lag).\u201d By his math, that thinner immediate float means each new dollar has more price impact than on chains with lower staking penetration.<\/p>\n
Valuation magnifies the effect, he says. \u201cSolana is at a much lower valuation than ETH or BTC \u2026 a dollar spent on a SOL DAT is like $5 on an ETH DAT or $22 on a BTC DAT when looking at relative valuations.\u201d Adjusting for staked versus readily tradable supply, he pushes the comparison further: \u201cWhen you factor in the circulating supply amounts with staking, that\u2019s closer to 11x for ETH efficiency or 36x for BTC efficiency.\u201d<\/p>\n
He also weaves in the role of ETFs and corporate vehicles alongside treasuries. \u201cSSK is doing some of the work at roughly $2m\/day in inflows since launch, however the inflation schedule needs 10x inflows \u2014 and this will likely come with further ETF approvals,\u201d he wrote, arguing that DATs have a flywheel effect: \u201cThese DATs take supply off the market, they earn tokens based on staking yield \u2026 and they make subsequent buys by vehicles like ETFs more effective at moving the market.\u201d On sector leadership, he\u2019s blunt about the need for a standard-bearer: \u201cSOL DATs need a Michael Saylor or a Tom Lee, narrative is the name of the game.\u201d<\/p>\n
His summary distills the thesis to a few lines: \u201cRight now less than 1% of supply is under SOL DAT management, this will likely shift to 3% with the 3 newly announced vehicles, and 5% with planned future vehicles.\u201d \u201cCurrent ETF inflows are not sufficient,\u201d he added, \u201chowever larger vehicles should be approved by start of Q4 and SOL remains a contender for institutional bid.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Solana](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SOLUSDT_2025-08-27_11-37-10.png?resize=1024%2C471\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"