{"id":6912,"date":"2025-09-02T18:13:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T18:13:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/the-bitcoin-bull-run-cracks-if-98000-is-lost-ostium-labs-warns\/"},"modified":"2025-09-02T18:13:12","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T18:13:12","slug":"the-bitcoin-bull-run-cracks-if-98000-is-lost-ostium-labs-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/the-bitcoin-bull-run-cracks-if-98000-is-lost-ostium-labs-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bitcoin Bull Run Cracks If $98,000 Is Lost, Ostium Labs Warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ostium Labs argues that Bitcoin\u2019s uptrend remains intact after August\u2019s reversal, but it draws a bright red line at $98,000. In its September 1 Market Outlook, the firm writes<\/a>: \u201cClosing below $98k on this timeframe would turn weekly structure bearish,\u201d adding that \u201cabove $98k weekly structure is still bullish and therefore we should anticipate the formation of a higher-low.\u201d<\/p>\n

At publication time, Ostium referenced BTC around $108,017, with the August monthly candle settling \u201cfirmly red\u201d after wicking through the record to roughly $124.5k and closing near prior resistance-turned-support around $108.2k.<\/p>\n

Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now<\/h2>\n

On the monthly chart, Ostium sees no evidence of a 2021-style cyclical top. The note acknowledges some momentum divergence on RSI but stresses the absence of confirmation from the Awesome Oscillator: \u201cAO has continued to point towards building momentum throughout the uptrend\u2026 I do not think this is even remotely similar to the 2021 top formation.\u201d<\/p>\n

The bear case strengthens only if September \u201ccloses below the 2025 open at $93.3k and therefore below local trendline support.\u201d For the bullish path, the team wants September to find support \u201cabove the yearly open, but likely much higher around the July lows at $105k,\u201d and \u201cideally\u201d finish the month green \u201cabove the August open at $115k,\u201d a configuration they say would \u201cset us up for expansion beyond the highs in October.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Weekly structure, by Ostium\u2019s read, \u201cshowed no exhaustion on the move higher\u201d and has now reset toward 50 on RSI, a profile the firm says supports trend continuation. Should the market carve a higher low early in September and reclaim momentum, a weekly close \u201cback above $112k leads to a retest of the August open and potentially $117.5k into FOMC with a retest of the highs before month-end.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The daily timeframe remains the near-term hurdle. Ostium characterizes the pullback as \u201corderly,\u201d with supports flipped to resistance on the way down and \u201cthe key level\u2026 obviously the $112k prior all-time high,\u201d which served as support in early August and then \u201creclaimed resistance\u201d on last week\u2019s leg lower.<\/p>\n

\u201cA breakout and close above the trendline and back above $112k would look like the bottom is in,\u201d they write. A failed probe\u2014\u201cwick above the trendline into $112k and reject\u201d\u2014would bias price toward \u201cthe June open at $104.5k, with the 200dMA below that at $101.3k being key demand.\u201d In derivatives, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps for Binance\u2019s BTC\/USDT pair over one week and one month show dense liquidation bands layered above the $114k cap and clustered below around the $120k region, while no significant levels are visible to the downside.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

With a macro-heavy week ahead\u2014 ISM prints, JOLTS, the Fed\u2019s Beige Book, jobless claims, ADP, ISM Services, and Friday\u2019s Nonfarm Payrolls\u2014Ostium lays out conditional tactical setups. For longs, they prefer evidence of exhaustion into support: trendline resistance respected, \u201ctoday\u2019s low\u201d taken out via a liquidation wick into the June-open\/200-day cluster, and bullish divergence forming there before bidding for a move back to the weekly open and the $112k retest. For shorts, they prefer a sharp early-week squeeze into $112k \u201cwith trend exhaustion\u2026 having not taken out today\u2019s low around $107k,\u201d fading the pop back into weekly lows with risk reduced if it unfolds ahead of NFP.<\/p>\n

Ostium also surveys positioning, pointing to snapshots across Velo and CoinGlass, three-month annualized basis, and the mix between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, as well as one-week and one-month liquidation maps. While it refrains from headline claims on those dashboards, the note\u2019s technical levels line up with the most concentrated liquidation density visible in the attached heatmaps, where stacked interest remains perched near the $112k pivot overhead and layered through the $105k\u2013$101k demand shelf.<\/p>\n

DXY As Tailwind For The BTC Price<\/h2>\n

The report extends beyond Bitcoin. The dollar backdrop, in Ostium\u2019s framework, remains a tailwind for BTC into year-end. With DXY around 97.2, the firm says the current sequence rhymes with past cyclical drawdowns and expects \u201cDXY to break below 96 and push towards at least 94.6, but more likely 93,\u201d where a bottoming formation could emerge above the 200-month moving average. The secular DXY bull case is not dismissed; rather, Ostium situates the present leg as the final cyclical downswing before a higher-low and multi-year recovery, contingent on policy outcomes. A decisive monthly reclaim of 100 would invalidate the near-term bearish DXY view.<\/p>\n

Across assets, the through-line of Ostium\u2019s September map is clarity on thresholds. For Bitcoin, a weekly loss of $98,000 would be the first structural break of the cycle; a daily reclaim of $112,000 would strongly argue the local low is in; and a monthly hold above $105,000 with a close back over $115,000 would tee up fresh highs into October.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $110,610.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ostium Labs argues that Bitcoin\u2019s uptrend remains intact after August\u2019s reversal, but it draws a bright red line at $98,000. In its September 1 Market Outlook, the firm writes: \u201cClosing below $98k on this timeframe would turn weekly structure bearish,\u201d adding that \u201cabove $98k weekly structure is still bullish and therefore we should anticipate the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6913,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-6912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6912\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}