The central pillar of his bullish case is the absence of a terminal mania phase that has historically characterized cycle peaks. \u201cWhat\u2019s absent more importantly here is a blowoff to a high,\u201d Loukas said. \u201cIn every cycle that we\u2019ve had for Bitcoin into the four-year cycle high, we\u2019ve had this three-month period\u2026 of euphoric buying and a significant price appreciation\u2026 and that leads to a peak.\u201d With the market now around month 34 from the prior four-year-cycle low and seasonality turning favorable, he believes the conditions for that late surge are in place: \u201cWe really should be looking for a blowoff phase that is imminent, that is just about to begin in my opinion\u2026 We are at the most opportune time in the four-year cycle for such a move.\u201d<\/p>\n
Loukas placed the recent August high at month 33, a timing band that \u201cpretty closely\u201d echoes prior cycles and, in his words, makes a bearish interpretation \u201ccredible.\u201d He stressed he is not ignoring the relative underperformance versus equities and the powerful rally in gold. From a purely structural standpoint, the move from the bear-market low to the month-33 high amounts to \u201ca very healthy 700% rise,\u201d and\u2014under a diminishing-returns framework\u2014could be a complete cycle in itself. \u201cI give it an outside chance that it peaked on month 33\u2026 maybe 10% to 20%,\u201d he said. Still, he argued that attempting to sidestep risk at this exact juncture is unwise \u201con the eve of a possible move up.\u201d<\/p>\n
If the blowoff materializes, Loukas expects it to follow the established template of late-cycle weekly advances that compound rapidly over eight to fifteen weeks. He will not commit to a hard target, but he illustrated the magnitude with prior doubling moves. \u201cA doubling from the lows here in the last few months\u2014let\u2019s call it $105k\u2014gets us up to $210k\u2026 getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic\u2026 there is a pretty clear path to that possibility,\u201d he said. He emphasized that execution should be guided by sentiment and overextension rather than round-number targets: \u201cI think we want to be a little flexible\u2026 looking at how stretched this market can get.\u201d<\/p>\n
Risk management was a major focus. Loukas flagged the 10-month moving average\u2014\u201caround about the $100,000 level\u201d\u2014as a late-cycle guardrail: \u201cClosing a month out under the $100,000 is a major warning sign at this point.\u201d He also marked the prior \u201cbig weekly cycle decline down at $75,000\u201d as a line that \u201cBitcoin shouldn\u2019t be anywhere near,\u201d implying that a breach would be consistent with a bear market already underway.<\/p>\n
What To Expect Next<\/h2>\n
On the upside, he wants confirmation via fresh all-time highs that establish clear invalidation below. \u201cIdeally, what I want to see is a move back above the $120,000 level\u2026 if we get a move to new all-time highs, then that certainly would become my floor,\u201d he said, adding that a subsequent reversal \u201cback below the $105,000 level\u201d after printing a new high would \u201cindicate a change in trend and a likely top.\u201d<\/p>\n
Loukas also explored a third path: a more extended cycle that peaks in early 2026 with a shorter-than-usual bear phase. That scenario, he said, would probably not feature a classic blowoff and might advance in a \u201ccontrolled rise\u201d toward the $140,000\u2013$160,000 area before consolidating and attempting a final push. Under that path, he would \u201cplay it week by week and month by month and give Bitcoin a chance to continue extending into Q1 of \u201926 and beyond,\u201d waiting for unmistakable euphoric conditions before distributing.<\/p>\n
While acknowledging that \u201ceverybody\u201d is watching Q4 seasonality and four-year-cycle dynamics, Loukas cautioned against overthinking the consensus. \u201cHistorically\u2026 it ends up still unfolding in a similar way,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
For now, his base case is that the market is \u201con the cusp of a significant start to a final leg into the bull market high,\u201d with a peak most likely in the 35\u201337-month window from the prior cycle low. If the market fails to deliver a sustained breakout and instead rolls over through his predefined levels, the analyst says he will treat that as confirmation that the cycle topped at month 33 and will pivot accordingly.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe point,\u201d he concluded, \u201cis we\u2019re not trying to time an hourly or a daily or a weekly move. We\u2019re in this [on] a four-year-cycle time frame.\u201d The plan from here is simple, if not easy: \u201cStay humble\u2026 let the price action unfold\u2026 and try and capitalize on what I think will be the last move of this four-year cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $111,740.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/BTCUSDT_2025-09-25_11-48-51.png?resize=1024%2C471\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive inflection in its four-year cycle, with a euphoric \u201cblowoff\u201d advance likely to begin within days\u2014or the market having already printed its peak at month 33\u2014according to cycle analyst Bob Loukas. In a video published on September 24, 2025, Loukas told viewers he remains \u201cheavily\u201d inclined toward an imminent upside resolution…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7362,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-7361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7361"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7361\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}