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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin\u2019s widely cited four-year halving cycle has broken down and that macro liquidity\u2014not protocol mechanics\u2014will dictate the next leg of the market. In a new essay titled \u201cLong Live the King!\u201d published on October 9, 2025, the BitMEX co-founder contends that policy choices in Washington and Beijing are setting up a structurally easier money regime that should keep pushing BTC higher, even as many traders look for a textbook cycle peak. \u201cThe four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us,\u201d he writes, but those applying the old pattern \u201cmiss why it will fail this time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hayes\u2019 alongside US conditions.<\/p>\n
To make the case that halving-anchored timing is obsolete, Hayes revisits four eras and links each to turning points in dollar and yuan liquidity. The \u201cGenesis Cycle\u201d (2009\u20132013) rode post-GFC quantitative easing and a surge in Chinese credit until both decelerated into 2013, \u201cpopp[ing] the Bitcoin bubble.\u201d<\/p>\n
The \u201cICO Cycle\u201d (2013\u20132017) was powered less by dollars than by \u201ca fuck ton of yuan sloshing around the global money markets,\u201d as the China credit impulse spiked in 2015 amid a yuan devaluation, before tightening and higher U.S. rates ended the run. The \u201cCOVID Hoax\u201d period (2017\u20132021)\u2014Hayes\u2019 label for the pandemic-era policy response\u2014saw \u201chelicopter money\u201d under President Donald Trump and a rapid doubling of dollar supply with rates pinned at zero, propelling all risk assets, including crypto, until inflation forced tightening in late 2021.<\/p>\n
In the current \u201cNew World Order\u201d phase (2021\u2013?), Hayes argues that liquidity plumbing, not halvings, explains Bitcoin\u2019s resilience. He highlights the US Treasury\u2019s issuance tilt toward short-dated bills, which drained the Fed\u2019s reverse repo facility and \u201cunleashed ~$2.5 trillion of liquidity into the markets,\u201d and he characterizes this as a political choice to \u201crun the economy hot.\u201d<\/p>\n
He links the macro pivot directly to today\u2019s setup: \u201cThe Fed resumed cutting interest rates in September even though inflation is above its own target,\u201d while the administration seeks to \u201clower the cost of housing\u201d and loosen bank regulation to spur lending to \u201ccritical industries.\u201d In Hayes\u2019 reading, the policy signals are unambiguous: \u201cmoney shall be cheaper and more plentiful.\u201d<\/p>\n
China, in his view, won\u2019t reprise the extreme credit surges of 2009 or 2015, but it also won\u2019t be a headwind. While Beijing grappled with deflationary pressure and a property-sector reckoning, Hayes expects pragmatism to prevail: \u201cWhen the economic pressure proves too intense\u2026 Chinese policymakers print money.\u201d The upshot, he says, is that China may not drive global fiat creation, \u201cbut it won\u2019t hinder it either.\u201d<\/p>\n
The unifying thesis is that cycles have always been monetary cycles wearing different masks. Bitcoin\u2019s earlier peaks coincided with decelerating dollar and yuan liquidity; its latest advance reflects a new alignment of political priorities with easier money, regardless of the halving calendar.<\/p>\n
Hayes puts it bluntly: \u201cListen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.\u201d His closing line distills the claim to a coronation metaphor: \u201cThe king is dead, long live the king!\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $122,147.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin\u2019s widely cited four-year halving cycle has broken down and that macro liquidity\u2014not protocol mechanics\u2014will dictate the next leg of the market. In a new essay titled \u201cLong Live the King!\u201d published on October 9, 2025, the BitMEX co-founder contends that policy choices in Washington and Beijing are setting up a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7612,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-7611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7611\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}