Final Stand For Bitcoin\u2019s Staircase Rally<\/h2>\n
Dom\u2019s base case is not a classic crypto winter. He does not expect an 80% wipeout. Instead, he\u2019s warning that the next few days will decide if Bitcoin can defend the \u201cstaircase\u201d structure that has held all cycle. If that breaks, he expects a controlled but persistent retrace \u2014 not a collapse, but not continuation either.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don’t think that we’re going into a year and a half bear market like we always have,\u201d he said. \u201cThose are a thing of the past\u2026 unless the world goes into a terrible recession like Great Depression type thing.\u201d<\/p>\n
The key line he\u2019s watching for Bitcoin is roughly the $111,000\u2013$114,000 region, which he referenced in the context of reclaimed resistance and VWAP levels. \u201cIf it doesn’t regain that in a quick timeframe, I think we need to get ready for a larger breakdown and that’s going to be sub $100K,\u201d he said. His first target on breakdown is near $98,500, which lines up with what he called the 12-month rolling VWAP \u2014 \u201cour bull market band this entire cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-31-082405.png?resize=1024%2C612\")
<\/p>\n
Below that, he\u2019s looking at whether buyers step in aggressively or not at all. That reaction, he says, will decide if $95,000 is a local wipeout and reset, or the start of something worse.<\/p>\n
The reason he considers this moment \u201cdo or die\u201d is that, unlike earlier legs in the cycle, Bitcoin is no longer bouncing instantly from support. Throughout the advance, Dom says, Bitcoin followed a single clean pattern: break a major resistance, retest it once, and explode higher. \u201cAny time that we cleared resistance, we held that as support,\u201d he said. \u201cIt’s been a perfect pattern throughout the entire cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n
That behavior has now changed. After the October 10 liquidation event and the brief strength around the Fed decision and China headlines, Bitcoin stalled. It broke above resistance, then just sat there for \u201cfour or five months,\u201d failed to expand, and is now losing momentum at the exact same level buyers previously defended with urgency.<\/p>\n
\u201cSomebody does not believe that this is a discount,\u201d he said. \u201cWe’ve had so many bounces at the same price and buyers just aren’t interested. What’s going to get them interested? Logically lower prices.\u201d<\/p>\n
This is classic auction theory for him. In strong uptrends, the first retest of a key level is bought instantly because participants see it as cheap. Now, he says, order flow shows hesitation, not urgency. That is how tops actually form in crypto: not one dramatic candle, but buyers refusing to defend the same level for the fifth time.<\/p>\n
He also pointed directly to shallow liquidity on major spot books. On Coinbase, he said, \u201cthese order books are empty\u2026 nobody’s saving us down here.\u201d He described only thin passive bid interest near $100,000 \u2014 \u201cthat’s only 170 Bitcoin. That’s really not much\u201d \u2014 and heavy active sell pressure on Binance. \u201cPeople are actively market selling\u2026 and we don’t have anyone on the other side to absorb that pressure.\u201d His conclusion: this is exactly the setup that precedes fast air-moves lower if a key level breaks.<\/p>\n
That fragility is not hypothetical. Dom says the October 10 crash already proved how dependent crypto still is on a handful of market makers. \u201cWe basically slid through an empty order book,\u201d he said. \u201cIt proves how fragile crypto really is\u2026 If their risk systems say, \u2018Hey, we’re not going to quote this,\u2019 markets are going to crash like they did.\u201d<\/p>\n
No 80% Crash This Time<\/h2>\n
Still, Dom is not in the \u201ccycle is over forever\u201d camp. He thinks the market has changed structurally and that most traders are still using a 2021 mental model in a 2025 market.<\/p>\n
He argues Bitcoin is now an institutional instrument, not a purely speculative retail instrument. \u201cThis right here has been a very steady staircasing kind of growth,\u201d he said. \u201cThe difference\u2026 is that this was really pushed because of institutions. I think the institutions were the main driver behind this cycle\u2026 ETFs launched and we’ve kind of just staircased our way up.\u201d<\/p>\n
That slow, controlled advance is why he rejects the idea that Bitcoin will repeat the classic -80% drawdown after topping. He calls the new flow \u201cparked money\u201d \u2014 capital from ETFs, corporate treasuries, allocators, and \u201cfinancial advisors, 401k money,\u201d that is not actively panic-selling every 5% move. \u201cThey’re not calling you every other day and saying, \u2018Oh, you know, it’s down 5%. Let’s sell it,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He also pointed out that this cycle barely doubled the old all-time high instead of going vertical, and even printed new highs before the halving. In his view, if the upside blow-off was muted and institutional, the downside is likely to be muted and institutional.<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $110,280.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/BTCUSDT_2025-10-31_13-35-55.png?resize=1024%2C473\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin is sitting on its first true make-or-break support of the cycle, and the market is now in what crypto analyst Dom (@traderview2) calls a \u201cfork in the road.\u201d His message is direct: if Bitcoin cannot stabilize and reclaim key levels quickly, the structure that has defined this entire run breaks for the first time…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8038,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,55,69,61,120,121],"class_list":["post-8037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8037\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}