{"id":9790,"date":"2026-01-29T19:13:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T19:13:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-death-cross-that-last-preceded-a-66-drop-is-back\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T19:13:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T19:13:12","slug":"bitcoin-death-cross-that-last-preceded-a-66-drop-is-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/bitcoin-death-cross-that-last-preceded-a-66-drop-is-back\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin has recently formed a technical crossover that preceded bearish shifts in the past.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Has Seen A Death Cross Between 21-Day &amp; 50-Day SMAs<\/h2>\n<p>In a new  simple moving averages (SMAs) that the asset has gone through recently.<\/p>\n<p>An SMA is a statistical tool that averages a quantity over a given period of time and that, as its name suggests, updates in time with the quantity. This tool can be useful for studying long-term trends, as it smooths out the graph by eliminating short-term fluctuations.<\/p>\n<p>SMAs can be taken over any window, but in the context of the current topic, two specific periods are of relevance: 21-day and 50-day. Below is the chart posted by Martinez that shows the trend in these SMAs for Bitcoin over the past decade.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/G_vTDv_XUAAsExP?format=jpg&amp;name=4096x4096\" alt=\"Bitcoin Death Cross\" width=\"2160\" height=\"2700\" \/><\/p>\n<p>From the graph, it&#8217;s visible that the daily Bitcoin price has seen its 21-day SMA fall below the 50-day one recently. In the past, this crossover has tended to act as a &#8220;death cross&#8221; for the cryptocurrency, with its price plunging after the signal&#8217;s appearance.<\/p>\n<p>In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the previous instances of this death cross. It would appear that the asset experienced drawdowns ranging between 54% and 69% following the crossover.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent occurrence of the crossover was in 2022, leading into a price decline of almost 66% to the bear market bottom. Given the past pattern, it only remains to be seen whether the 21-day SMA going below the 50-day SMA will prove to be bearish for Bitcoin this time.<\/p>\n<p>In the scenario that bearish momentum does follow for the asset, it could be at risk of breaching below an on-chain level known as the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio. This level represents the ratio between two on-chain indicators: the Realized Price and Liveliness.<\/p>\n<p>The first of these tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin blockchain, while the latter encapsulates the spending\/HODLing behavior of long-term investors.<\/p>\n<p>As Martinez has highlighted in another X <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/alicharts\/status\/2015908355307417953\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">post<\/a>, Bitcoin has been trading near the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio recently.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/G_l7H3gXsAAvAP5?format=jpg&amp;name=medium\" alt=\"Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio\" width=\"960\" height=\"1200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio is situated around $87,500 right now. BTC briefly fell below this mark during the Sunday dip, but the coin has since recovered back above it.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The last time Bitcoin $BTC fell below the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio, it moved toward the Realized Price,&#8221; noted the analyst. Currently, the Realized Price is located at $56,000.<\/p>\n<h2>BTC Price<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,500, up 2% in the last seven days.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/0H3N52Zt\/\" alt=\"Bitcoin Price Chart\" width=\"1486\" height=\"915\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin has recently formed a technical crossover that preceded bearish shifts in the past. Bitcoin Has Seen A Death Cross Between 21-Day &amp; 50-Day SMAs In a new simple moving averages (SMAs) that the asset has gone through recently. An SMA is a statistical tool that averages a&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9791,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[56,4248,55,596,61,62],"class_list":["post-9790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-death-cross","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-signal","tag-btc","tag-btcusdt"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsvalue.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}