Coinbase Institutional has released its latest second-quarter (Q2) outlook for the crypto market, offering a read on what institutional investors said about Bitcoin (BTC) as the industry moves into Q2. What Coinbase Thinks About Q2 2026 In the report , Coinbase frames its overall position as neutral for the second quarter of the year, pointing to the kind of uncertainty that makes it difficult to press directional bets in the near term. The firm said persistent, elevated uncertainty tied to the current geopolitical situation is one of the main reasons it isn’t leaning heavily toward either upside or downside trades. In that environment, Coinbase expects a more balanced approach to risk and return rather than aggressive positioning. It also notes that, even with broader uncertainty dominating decision-making, there are still specific, “idiosyncratic” factors that can influence crypto outcomes. Among them, Coinbase highlights regulatory developments and the growing rise of agentic artificial intelligence (AI). However, the firm’s view is that these themes are currently taking a back seat to macro and geopolitical risk. Looking closer to the present, Coinbase said it is cautiously optimistic that the macro picture may be shifting in a more positive direction as the quarter begins. The firm suggests that this could help many crypto assets find a bottom in the near term and then recover later in Q2. Coinbase also pointed to technical indicators that, in general, have turned positive not only across crypto markets but also across equity markets. Still, the report makes clear that this improvement is conditional and that it depends on whether a deal is reached with Iran. 82% Of Institutions See Late-Bear Markets As part of its outlook, between March 16 and April 7, 2026, Coinbase surveyed 91 global investors—29 institutions and 62 non-institutions—to gather perspectives on where the market is headed. One of the most striking takeaways from the survey is that sentiment has worsened across both institutional and non-institutional groups. Coinbase reported that roughly 82% of institutions and 70% of non-institutions now place the market in either bear market or late bear market phases. Even with the more pessimistic phase readings, the survey suggests investors continue to see Bitcoin as a value opportunity. Coinbase said three-quarters of institutions (75%) and about three-fifths of non-institutions (61%) view BTC as undervalued. The survey also measured expectations for Bitcoin’s share of the market, or “dominance.” Coinbase reported that expectations have shifted toward what it called a steady state. Specifically, the share of institutions expecting BTC dominance to increase fell from 40% to 25%. At the same time, a plurality of institutions—54%—now expect dominance to hold around current levels, an increase from 44%. Coinbase added that within that set, 21% of institutions are looking for a decline in dominance. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
