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Seeking Alpha 2026-05-19 21:21:47

MSBT: There's A New Kid On The Block

Summary The Bitcoin ETF concept is explored, focusing on its potential impact on cryptocurrency markets. The article discusses the structure and appeal of cryptocurrency ETFs for investors seeking exposure. Key considerations include the regulatory environment, liquidity, and tracking accuracy of Bitcoin ETFs. The investment thesis centers on ETFs as a bridge between traditional finance and digital assets. It's important for all investors to seek out the ETFs, mutual funds, or other investment vehicles that provide them with the best value, without sacrificing other elements like transparency, scale, and reputation. On April 8, 2026, Morgan Stanley became the first major U.S. bank to launch their own Bitcoin spot ETF, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ( MSBT ), which may offer investors the best deal on the market in regard to direct Bitcoin exposure. This ETF stores its Bitcoin in institutional-grade custody, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC serving as the custodian and prime broker. Now over a month old, we have had the chance to see what this ETF can do. It has increased in value by over 12% during its first month and is currently up 7.72% since its launch at the time of this writing. It appears to be delivering on its objective, which is to " track the performance of bitcoin, as measured by the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark Rate (the Pricing Benchmark), adjusted for the Trust's expenses and other liabilities." This benchmark is calculated based on an aggregation of executed trade flow from major Bitcoin spot exchanges. And it's doing so at no cost, without any fees. There will be no fee at all on the first $5 billion for the first six months (after the April 8th launch). Currently, their assets under management total $233 million and are growing but are still far below the $5 billion limit that would trigger an expense ratio to begin. We have five more months of zero expenses on this product. After the first six months, the long-term expense ratio is expected to be 0.14% , which would be the lowest expense ratio of any spot Bitcoin ETF on the market. When a competitor offers the same or a similar deal for a lower price, that has to be worthy of consideration. Competitors that charge a higher expense ratio need not be ruled out, but it's important to understand what benefit you are getting by paying a higher expense ratio. Sometimes that benefit is simply the brand and reputation of the company, the size and scale of the ETF, the liquidity, and/or the level of transparency disclosed in the product or service. Current investors in and providers of ETFs utilizing Bitcoin spot, such as BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) through the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ), Fidelity through the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF ( FBTC ), Vaneck through the VanEck Bitcoin ETF ( HODL ), and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ( BTC ), may want to consider diversifying, changing current investments, or at least directing new investments to MSBT in order to take advantage of the cost savings on the expense ratio. The largest Bitcoin ETFs, IBIT and FBTC, have an expense ratio of 0.25%. MSBT's closest competition (in terms of providing a low expense ratio) would be Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust, BTC ETF, charging 0.15%. While it may not sound like much of a difference, every little bit may add up over time. Those who invest directly in Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) itself (as opposed to an ETF) may also want to consider MSBT as an option, as investing in Bitcoin directly, in just about any platform, always comes with some sort of expense, whether it be through transaction fees or bid-ask spreads. Forward-Looking View: Bullish Given higher-peer expense ratios and Morgan Stanley's size, scale, and reputation as a company, along with current trends in the Bitcoin and Crypto industry marking increased adoption worldwide, it is my view that MSBT will retain and grow its assets over the long term. My recommendation is to buy and hold MSBT over the next several years. It is a new and very valuable tool for tracking Bitcoin's returns at an unmatched cost savings. It might even be the beginning of a whole new trend in the banking industry that changes the scope and demand for Bitcoin going forward. Due to high-net-worth demand, it's very likely that even small allocation percentages from Morgan Stanley wealth management could generate billions in assets under management for MSBT. More Than Just One New Financial Product: A Very Loud Signal of Change and Acceptance: The launch of MSBT may indicate a firm-wide view that digital assets are a permanent part, and increasingly growing part, of the investment landscape. This move by Morgan Stanley may actually represent a major turning point in how Wall Street and the Banking industry view Bitcoin, being the first bank to do this (although technically, SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI), through SoFi Bank, was the first to allow crypto trading, Morgan Stanley is the first to offer this in the form of an ETF with a built-in-house product.) For the first decade of Bitcoin's existence, the relationship between Wall Street and Bitcoin was largely "one of skepticism, mockery, or outright hostility." That relationship has changed to one where Bitcoin is taken far more seriously and considered to be much more mainstream, even by the most regulated entities in the financial system. When an asset manager like BlackRock launches a Bitcoin ETF, they're saying they believe there's client demand for the product and are seeking to capitalize on a share of that demand. However, when a major commercial U.S. bank like Morgan Stanley does this, "they're saying something additional and more profound." Given how tightly regulated the commercial banks are, when they launch Bitcoin ETFs, they're saying that they're comfortable enough with Bitcoin as an asset class to put their credibility, reputation, institutional brand, and regulatory relationships on the line to support it. That's a major sign of confidence in Bitcoin. With Morgan Stanley being the first major U.S. bank to do this, it may open the door to many more banks following suit. This may very well create competitive pressure for every major commercial U.S. bank to offer something similar or risk losing clients. MSBT has proven that there is clear, organic, client-driven demand for this product, as it generated $233 million in AUM before Morgan Stanley's 16,000 financial advisors were even cleared to recommend it. Risks and Concerns to Consider Being this new and this small, MSBT is still at a relatively low trading volume, at least for the moment, potentially creating a slightly wider bid-ask spread than your typical Bitcoin spot ETF. This could potentially cost investors more than what they might save in expense ratios. However, Morgan Stanley is a very large company, valued at over $300 billion; they are larger than BlackRock in market valuation (despite having fewer assets under management than BlackRock). I expect that this trading volume will improve over time with a company of this size and scale. Although it may struggle to grow at the same speed and pace as IBIT and FBTC did, due to the lack of first-mover advantage. Another risk to consider is that, while all the major Bitcoin spot ETFs should have nearly identical performance, there will still be small differences. In the first month of MSBT's existence (April 8th to May 8th, 2026), IBIT outperformed MSBT (12.44% to 12.41%). But MSBT can also outperform over some timeframes, as it did from May 1st to May 8th (2.27% to 2.20%) and from launch to present (7.72% to 7.69%). So there will be small variations in performance that may or may not take away the cost savings from MSBT's lower expense ratio. Taxes: If selling one Bitcoin ETF to buy another (in a regular, non-retirement brokerage account), it would implicate owing more in capital gains taxes; that may be a reason to leave current investments in place while perhaps exploring new options for future investments with new income coming in. Regulation: Banks are placed under a much higher level of scrutiny than just regular asset managers. While I tend to view this as a good thing, as it ensures transparency, integrity, and client protection, I also recognize that satisfying regulatory policies, under increased scrutiny, can also make it harder for banks to offer innovative and practical investment vehicles to their clients. And there's also the risk with Bitcoin's performance in general, being a very volatile asset (although the main focus of this article is comparing MSBT to other direct Bitcoin investment alternatives). MSBT and the Near Future of Bitcoin I do believe that Bitcoin has a lot of tailwinds going for it, such as the pending legislation of the Crypto Clarity Act, which many ETF managers have said could " expedite the institutional adoption of crypto investing. " While I am very bullish on Bitcoin in general, I do recognize that volatility can be quite high, as it has suffered a 50% correction recently (from a high of $126,000 to a low of $60,000). I expect potentially a lot of short-term volatility, which shouldn't raise that much alarm, as this is how Bitcoin tends to behave sometimes. Regarding the near future, I believe a lot of attention will be given to the Crypto Clarity Act, which has recently passed Senate markup, advancing out of the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support. While timeline estimates vary, it is expected that it may be brought to a Senate floor vote sometime in mid-to-late June, reconciled with the House of Representatives in July, and, with any luck, be signed into law in early August. Regardless of short-term volatility that may persist during this process, I believe the Clarity Act will provide very bullish news for Bitcoin and propel MSBT to much higher levels over the next few years. It serves as a very positive catalyst that will bring stronger institutional inflows, remove regulatory risk premiums, expand custody and integration, and supercharge ETF demand. Institutional demand will be much higher when the rules and regulations are spelled out more clearly, and this will be a giant net positive for the industry as a whole. MSBT should see solid gains as a direct result of the Clarity Act passing. I'm not certain of the timing; when, at what point during this process, or even after this process is over, will those gains start to take place? But I do believe significant Bitcoin gains will result from this process, nonetheless. Summary Perhaps the biggest advantage IBIT has over MSBT is its current size and scale, largely stemming from its first-mover advantage. Some analysts predict that MSBT may actually overtake and surpass IBIT in market share someday. That may happen, although I'm skeptical of that being the case. If that does happen, it won't be for many years. On the contrary, other big names in the Bitcoin investing community seem to view that IBIT will remain the most dominant ETF in the space. It's nice to have a new product that offers something we haven't quite seen before. A 0.14% long-term expense ratio is certainly appealing and helpful to low-cost investors. A temporary 0% expense ratio is also a nice bonus to that. But concerns remain over MSBT's ability to scale at a high level, and some investors may view IBIT and FBTC as safer vehicles to park their funds. While I am not necessarily recommending Bitcoin investors to place 100% of their Bitcoin holdings into MSBT, I do believe MSBT should hold a place, among other Bitcoin ETFs, in a diversified portfolio.

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