Mid-Year Review: VanEck's 15 Crypto Predictions For 2024

Summary We've hit the mid-year mark of 2024, and it's time to tally up our top 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024 that we outlined at the end of last year. From bitcoin’s price hitting all-time highs to Solana’s continued rise, our predictions have been put to the test. We review the key developments and trends shaping the crypto market this year so far. Scoreboard check! We've hit the mid-year mark of 2024, and it's time to tally up our top 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024 that we outlined at the end of last year. Spoiler alert: our home-field referee awarded us 95 out of 150 possible points. From bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) price hitting all-time highs to Solana's ( SOL-USD ) continued rise, our predictions have been put to the test. Let's break down the play-by-play of where we nailed it and where we missed the mark. Join us as we review the key developments and trends shaping the crypto market this year so far. 1. The U.S. Recession and the First Spot Bitcoin ETPs Prediction : The U.S. would enter a recession in the first half of 2024, and the first spot bitcoin ETPs would launch with significant inflows, keeping Bitcoin above $30k. Review: Although there are clear signs of economic slowing, with GDP slowing to a 1.3% annualized growth rate, the U.S. has not officially entered a recession. Key indicators like consumer spending and corporate earnings have shown resilience, mitigating the impacts of inflation and supply chain issues. However, the U.S. yield curve has been inverted for more than 700 days, the longest such streak in bond market history, often a precursor to recession. Jobless claims and corporate bankruptcy filings have also risen. As for the spot bitcoin ETPs, the approval and launch of the first spot bitcoin ETPs on January 11, 2024, was a significant milestone. The ETPs saw overwhelming demand, with inflows surpassing $2 billion in the first month alone. This influx of investment played a crucial role in driving bitcoin to an all-time high of $73,000 in March and maintaining its price above $30k throughout the year. The success of these ETPs has provided a new, regulated avenue for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, significantly boosting its market appeal and stability. Rating: 7/10 U.S. Yield Curve Now Inverted for Record Length Source: Bloomberg as of 6/24/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Bitcoin Price 2010 - Present Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 2. Bitcoin Halving Prediction : The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 would proceed without major issues, and post-halving, bitcoin would rise above $48k. Review: The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 occurred without any significant disruptions, demonstrating the network's stability and robustness. This halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin is introduced into circulation. Contrary to expectations of a brief consolidation period post-halving, bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $73,000 in March, well ahead of the halving. This early rally was likely fueled by the anticipation of the halving and the massive inflows from newly launched bitcoin ETPs. Bitcoin's price remains strong at $67,500, far surpassing the $48k target we had set post-halving. Rating: 10/10 Bitcoin Price Pre- and Post-Halving (April 2024 - June 2024) Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Bitcoin Hashrate 2009 - Present Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 3. Bitcoin's All-Time High in Q4 Prediction : Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in Q4 2024, driven by political changes and regulatory optimism. Review: Bitcoin's price soared to a new all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024, much earlier than our Q4 prediction. This surge was driven by the approval and subsequent success of the spot bitcoin ETPs in January, which attracted significant investment and heightened market confidence. The early achievement of this milestone was facilitated by positive regulatory developments and growing institutional interest. Although this prediction came to fruition ahead of schedule, the factors we predicted to drive the new high-regulatory progress and market optimism-were spot-on. The current price of $67,500 reflects the sustained interest and confidence in Bitcoin as a leading digital asset. Rating: 9/10 Historical Bitcoin Price Movements Around Major Regulatory Changes Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 4. Ethereum Won't Flip Bitcoin in 2024 Prediction : Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) would not surpass Bitcoin in market cap but outperform mega-cap tech stocks. Review: Ethereum remains well behind Bitcoin in market capitalization, particularly in light of Bitcoin's record-breaking performance this year. Despite this, Ethereum has had a strong year, outpacing many of the largest tech stocks in terms of growth and market performance. Its ecosystem continues to expand, driven by advancements like the EIP-4844 upgrade and the growing adoption of Layer 2 solutions. Despite not surpassing Bitcoin, Ethereum's resilience and robust growth align well with our prediction of its strong market performance relative to major tech stocks. Rating: 10/10 Ether Returns vs. Major Tech Stocks Source: Morningstar as of 6/21/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Price Ratio Comparison - Bitcoin vs. Ether Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 5. Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) Dominance Prediction : Post EIP-4844, Ethereum Layer 2 solutions would capture the majority of EVM-compatible TVL and volume. Review: While the rollout of EIP-4844 has significantly boosted the adoption of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, we are still waiting to see L2s attract more TVL or DEX activity than Ethereum. However, while Ethereum TVL share vs. L2s is roughly where it was at the beginning of 2024, DEX Volumes are slowly transitioning to L2s. This is mainly because Ethereum has made a dedicated data layer for L2s to post data. This moved activity from Ethereum's transaction layer, freeing up block space and making transactions on Ethereum less expensive. While L2s cost substantially less than Ethereum to use, often 100x cheaper, many participants still choose to pay higher Ethereum fees. This may be due to the stickiness of Ethereum TVL, the broader range of trading venues, and the large supply of tradeable assets. Within L2s, the consolidation of market share among the leading solutions is evident, with Base and Arbitrum seizing the majority (~80) of DEX Volume and TVL (>50%). The consolidation amongst L2s demonstrates the power of composability and network effect. Rating: 3/10 Total Value Locked (TVL) In DeFi on Ethereum TVL ) In DeFi on Ethereum"> Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. DEX Volumes are Moving to Base and Arbitrum Source: Artemis.xyz as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Ethereum DEX Volumes Still Exceeds L2 DEX Volumes Source: Artemis.xyz as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Ethereum Share of TVL is Roughly Where it Began in 2024 Source: Artemis.xyz as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 6. NFT Activity Rebounds Prediction: The NFT market experienced a resurgence in the first half of 2024 compared to the latter half of 2023, predominantly on Ethereum, which remains the leader in NFT activity. New high-profile collections and ongoing interest have driven trading volumes upward, although these volumes are still far from the all-time highs seen in 2021. An exciting development has been the introduction of NFTs on the Bitcoin network through the Ordinals protocol, adding a new dimension to the market and attracting a fresh wave of investors and collectors. Despite this positive trend, the overall NFT volume far from its previous peaks. Instead, some of the speculative trading volume has shifted towards meme coins, which have supplanted NFTs in attracting speculative investors Rating: 3/10 Monthly NFT Trading Volumes (Ethereum vs. Bitcoin) Source: Artemis.xyz and cryptoslam! as of 6/24/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 7. Binance Loses Top Spot Prediction : Binance ( BNB-USD ) would lose its position as the top spot trading exchange. Review: Despite regulatory scrutiny and increasing competition, Binance has retained its position as the leading centralized exchange by trading volume in 2024. However, its dominance is being challenged by competitors like OKX, Bybit, and Coinbase ( COIN ), which have gained market share. Binance's deep liquidity and extensive user base support its leadership, but the narrowing gap with its rivals suggests a more competitive landscape. Although Binance has yet to lose its top spot and still holds over half of all spot volumes, the intensifying competition highlights the changing dynamics in the centralized exchange market. Rating: 6/10 Binance Share of Spot Volume is Down Slightly Source: Artemis.xyz as of 6/15/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Source: Coinmarketcap as of 6/15/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 8. Stablecoin Market Cap Growth Prediction : The stablecoin market cap would reach a new all-time high, with USDC surpassing USDT in market share. Review: The stablecoin market has continued to grow in 2024, but it has yet to achieve the $200 billion milestone. USDC has been gaining ground, particularly among institutional users, due to its reputation for regulatory compliance. However, USDT remains the dominant stablecoin, primarily because of its entrenched position on Tron, which accounts for ~50% of USDT supply and widespread usage in trading. The dynamics between USDC and USDT show a trend toward increasing competition, with USDC closing the gap but not yet overtaking USDT. The stablecoin market's growth and evolving competitive landscape reflects our prediction, though the shift in dominance is still developing. Rating: 6/10 USDT, USDC, and Total Stablecoin Market Cap Source: Glassnode as of 6/23/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 9. DEX Market Share Increase Prediction : Decentralized exchanges (DEXes) would capture a larger share of the spot trading market. Review: Decentralized exchanges have continued to grow in market share throughout 2024. The improved user interfaces, lower fees, and enhanced liquidity offered by DEXes have attracted more traders. High-throughput blockchains and Layer 2 solutions have further facilitated this growth by providing faster and cheaper transactions. The ongoing trend towards self-custody and decentralized finance ('DEFI') supports this shift, with DEXes capturing an increasingly significant portion of the spot trading market. This aligns well with our prediction and underscores the evolving preference for decentralized trading platforms. Rating: 7/10 DEXes Are Taking Market Share From CEXes Source: Artemis.xyz as of 6/15/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 10. Bitcoin Yield Opportunities Prediction : Remittances and smart contract platforms would create new yield opportunities for Bitcoin. Review: Bitcoin's role in remittances has expanded in 2024, particularly in regions with high remittance flows and limited access to traditional financial services. Platforms leveraging Bitcoin and Layer 2 solutions like the Lightning Network have made transactions faster and cheaper. Additionally, yield opportunities for Bitcoin holders have emerged through staking and lending protocols that offer returns on bitcoin assets. These developments align well with our prediction, as they enhance Bitcoin's utility beyond mere transactions and provide new ways for holders to earn yields. However, the full potential of these opportunities is still unfolding, with ongoing adoption and innovation. Rating: 4/10 11. Breakout Blockchain Game Prediction : A blockchain game would surpass 1 million daily active users. Review: While several blockchain games have seen significant user engagement in 2024, none have consistently reached the 1 million daily active users milestone. High-quality titles like Illuvium ( ILV-USD ) and Guild of Guardians have attracted large communities but are still building their user bases. The integration of blockchain technology in gaming continues to evolve, with improvements in-game mechanics and user experience driving growth. Despite not hitting the 1 million user mark, these developments suggest a strong foundation for future success in the blockchain gaming sector. The potential for a breakout hit remains promising as the market matures. Rating: 5/10 12. Solana's Continued Rise Prediction : Solana would become a top 3 blockchain by market cap, TVL, and active users and join the ETPs wars. Review: Solana will continue to grow and strengthen its position in the blockchain ecosystem in 2024. It ranks highly in market capitalization, total value locked (TVL), and active users, though it has not yet cracked the top 3 in all these categories. Solana's ecosystem has attracted a wide range of projects and users, contributing to its strong market presence. However, solana-based ETPs have not yet emerged, contrary to our expectations. Despite this, Solana's ongoing growth and innovation highlight its significant impact and potential in blockchain. Rating: 7/10 Solana's Fees Have Increased 56x Over the Last Year Source: Coinmarketcap as of 6/15/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 13. Adoption of DePin Networks Prediction : Decentralized physical infrastructure networks like Hivemapper and Helium would see significant adoption. Review: Decentralized physical infrastructure (DePin) networks such as Hivemapper and Helium have made notable progress in 2024. Hivemapper has expanded its mapping capabilities, and Helium has increased its subscriber base for its decentralized wireless network. These networks use blockchain technology to create community-driven services, offering an alternative to traditional centralized systems. While adoption has grown, these platforms are still in the early stages of capturing significant market share from established giants like Google and traditional telecom providers. The potential for disruptive growth remains, but widespread adoption is yet to be fully realized. Rating: 7/10 Growth Metrics of Hivemapper and Helium Networks Source: Artemis.xyz as of 6/13/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Source: Hivemapper as of 6/15/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. 14. New Corporate Crypto Accounting Prediction : New FASB guidelines would rejuvenate corporate crypto holdings, and Coinbase would break out L2 revenues. Review: The Financial Accounting Standards Board ('FASB') guidelines allowing corporates to report mark-to-market gains on crypto assets are set to take effect in 2025, with anticipation building throughout 2024. Some non-crypto companies have already added BTC to their treasuries, and these include US publicly traded health tech company Semler Scientific ( SMLR, $40M), wealth and payments business MOGO ($5M), Japanese hotel services company Metaplanet ($7.2M). But wide-scale adoption has yet to occur. Within crypto, Defi Technologies recently added $7.5M in BTC to its treasury. However, the adoption of BTC by a greater treasury has yet to materialize. Coinbase, while advancing its Layer 2 (L2) solutions like Base Protocol, has not reported L2-specific revenues in its filings and instead tucks it under the broader category of "Subscriptions and Services.". The corporate adoption of crypto assets is increasing, with more firms exploring blockchain applications and digital asset holdings. Our prediction points towards future developments that are still on the horizon, with current trends suggesting growing interest and preparation for these changes. Rating: 5/10 Corporate Holdings of Crypto Assets