Summary The STKd 100% Bitcoin & 100% Gold ETF offers leveraged exposure to gold and Bitcoin as a dual inflation hedge. I recommend a strong purchase of BTGD, citing persistent fiat currency devaluation and supportive global debt dynamics. BTGD’s 0.99% expense ratio is justified by active management; it maintains a stable premium/discount profile and prudent leverage. Since late 2024, BTGD outperformed gold and Bitcoin individually, achieving a 94.45% cumulative return in a favorable market environment. Introduction & Thesis Currency devaluation is a phenomenon that affects all investors and forces us to invest our savings in products that outperform inflation. To this end, we will analyze the STKd 100% Bitcoin & 100% Gold ETF ( BTGD ). From my point of view, there are two different types of inflation. The first, which we are all familiar with, is inflation in goods and services, which causes a loss of purchasing power when we buy because the prices of these goods or services rise. The second, less well-known type is asset inflation or monetary inflation. This measures the growth in money supply, which in turn can produce inflation that is not included in the current inflation of goods and services. This is known as asset inflation, which causes financial assets to rise, not because of their improved performance or increase in value, but because they have to be brought into line with the new prices attached to a fiat currency, which continues to fall. The image below clearly illustrates my previous comments. FED To try to alleviate this inflationary problem, the fund manager Quantify Funds proposes a different approach. Seek exposure to gold and Bitcoin at the same time, using leverage, to form a portfolio that serves as a hedge against the inflation (price and monetary) described above. Readers should be reminded that simply investing their money is not enough. These investments must yield returns above the inflation rates mentioned above. And since the highest of these averages 8% per year, you need to expose yourself to assets that really provide you with the highest returns on the market. That is why the fund manager focuses on gold (a traditional store of value) and bitcoin (a scarce asset), which have played this role very effectively in recent times. Regarding the thesis, I recommend a strong purchase of the ETF. Based on my current view of things, the world's high debt levels and the path that both governments and central banks around the world are taking, I believe that the value of fiat currencies will continue to decline in the future and that it will be more necessary than ever to invest in order to maintain people's wealth. Consider also that debt and inflation already act as a political tool, since it is the debt-issuing governments themselves that benefit from inflation above their target (2%) because that inflation reduces the value of the debt incurred by the governments themselves. Looking ahead to 2026, I recommend holding a core position in this ETF, without exceeding the limits of the Kelly criterion and the diversification or objective of each reader. BGeometrics ETF Overview & Strategy Fund Website Fund Website Fund Website With regard to the fund's overview, we can see in the first image in this section that the ETF has an AUM of $ 100 million (small) and an expense ratio of 0.99% per annum, which I consider low given the active management implemented by the fund managers. Its 30-day SEC yield is low (1.31%), as its main objective is long-term capital appreciation and it invests in assets that do not pay dividends or interests . Its investment strategy uses leverage (financial futures) to be constantly 100% invested in the two assets, seeking a notional position of 200%. The performance table and the premium/discount chart show us the differences between the market price and the fund's NAV throughout its history. As can be seen, it has only traded at a premium or discount above 100 basis points on two occasions, which provides investors with a certain degree of peace of mind and stability when buying or selling their positions. The Portfolio Fund Website The main holdings reflect the dynamics of the ETF's strategy, where gross exposure exceeds 100% (leverage exists). As we can see, exposure to gold is concentrated in the GCG6 Commodity item (gold futures - 93.02%), while exposure to bitcoin is articulated through BTCF6 Currency (BTC futures - 72.68%). In addition to this, the ETF complements these operations with exposure to various ETFs such as (BITO, FBTC, and IBIT). The only part that contributes to the portfolio yield is the money market fund (FGDXX - 29.13%). It can serve as collateral for futures transactions and, with the yield contributed, serve to offset the financing costs of the leverage employed. Inflation Hedge MacroMicro MacroMicro As we mentioned in the first section, an increase in the money supply is a problem if the production of goods and services does not grow at the same rate, as it causes imbalances in the prices of those goods, harming the end consumer. The two images above illustrate this point. The first shows how the purchasing power of gold over time tends to behave like a mirror asset compared to the purchasing power of fiat currency. If investors want to maintain their wealth in real terms, they need an asset capable of consistently beating inflation, and gold, as we can see, works well for this purpose. The second metric represents the evolution of the aggregate M2 indicator by the world's major central banks. As can be seen in the image, the metric has a clear upward trend, which does not decline at any point in time. This is highly related to the global debt dynamics we see today. If the world continues on this path (contained real rates and fiscal necessity) as we are seeing, vehicles such as BTGD, which package two scarce assets with monetary narrative into a single ticker, will be key. For all these reasons, I recommend buying. Final Thoughts TradingView Comparing the performance of Bitcoin, gold, and BTGD since the end of 2024, we see that the ETF has been the winner of the race, with a cumulative return of 94.45%, compared to 82% for gold and 54% for Bitcoin. This means that, in the short time it has been on the market, it has been able to successfully execute its strategy, undoubtedly helped by the upward trends of the two assets in the period analyzed. I believe that, with proper implementation, vehicles such as this have a long-term future, for the reasons mentioned above. Thank you for reading.
